Spirit roll odds

it took me many attempts to get the first 35% shield. then I got maybe 4 or 5 more 35% shields quite quickly when I don't really care if it is a 35%.

And I tend to find whatever item I just traded for, this happened to Natures Peace,

Razortail,

Arm of King Leoric and more...

Peacku wrote: 3 years ago

Do we all agree that the chance to roll a 35% FCR Spirit is ~1/10?

I've used the

Hel +

Scroll of Town Portal recipe and hoarded Spirit runes many, many times now and I yet have to roll a 35.
Unfortunately I did not keep count but I would say I am easily at about 25 rerolls now, I've gotten 34% about 4 times and many 25% rolls.

This has got to be unlucky, right?

(I was going for a 35

Monarch first before trying to roll 35 on a

Crystal Sword and decent levelling

Rondache but now I'm scared)

I made probably 50 Spirit shields before I gave up. Never seen a single 35%.

Was about to throw all sorts of offers at you..until I read the part about the 143 base.

No problem - someone dropped an 4os

Monarch in the game and did'nt needed it. Was my 5th try and i realized much later that the stats are perfect.

Gris

mishabg wrote: 2 years ago

The thing with low probability events, is that it's easy to go on a bad streak. If you roll a million of them, you'll get the right amount of perfect, but you'll also get streaks with 30, 40 misses in a row. Just variance.

But on a smaller streak, you can massively underperform your odds.

The odds of rolling perfect FCR are 1/11 (not 1/10).

The odds of not getting at least one over 11 rolls is 35%. ((10/11)^11)
The odds of not getting it with 20 rolls is 15%
30 rolls? 6%.
To go under a 1% odds, you need 49 tries in a row without success.

But you also need to consider the fact that thousands of people try to roll the same thing. So as unlikely as a <1% odds looks, someone is guaranteed to achieve this.

If 10,000 people try to reroll spirits, it's roughly 50-50 that one of them will go 100 rolls in a row without hitting 35.

That one person will think it's rigged or that the odds aren't 1/11 or that he's cursed... But statistically, it's not just normal, it's expected.

I love calculating odds for these kind of things to get a measure of how lucky/unlucky I am, and thanks for correcting me, indeed it is 1/11 and not 1/10!
Still haven't managed to get than 35 roll though, but I have been lazy and haven't done that many rolls lately for lack of Hels (and lack of playing)... Let's see if I get under the 1%!

Peacku wrote: 2 years ago

I love calculating odds for these kind of things to get a measure of how lucky/unlucky I am, and thanks for correcting me, indeed it is 1/11 and not 1/10!
Still haven't managed to get than 35 roll though, but I have been lazy and haven't done that many rolls lately for lack of Hels (and lack of playing)... Let's see if I get under the 1%!

I love calculating those too (sometimes for a bit of perspective); I'm also on an unlucky streak with something else, ID'ing torches; My odds of not ID'ing a sorc or paladin torch yet was 4%.

I hope I'll get one before bringing these odds to <1% hah.

I was lucky enough to roll a 35% FCR Spirit

Monarch on the first try. I couldn't believe it.

Peacku wrote: 3 years ago

Do we all agree that the chance to roll a 35% FCR Spirit is ~1/10?

No. I've rolled like 50 or 60 Spirit Monarchs, and gotten zero that rolled 35% FCR. I've gotten 34% FCR like 10 or more times, it's so irritating.

Peacku wrote: 3 years ago

Do we all agree that the chance to roll a 35% FCR Spirit is ~1/10?

I've used the

Hel +

Scroll of Town Portal recipe and hoarded Spirit runes many, many times now and I yet have to roll a 35.
Unfortunately I did not keep count but I would say I am easily at about 25 rerolls now, I've gotten 34% about 4 times and many 25% rolls.

This has got to be unlucky, right?

(I was going for a 35

Monarch first before trying to roll 35 on a

Crystal Sword and decent levelling

Rondache but now I'm scared)

I agree that it is 1/10, but luck definitely factors. I rolled 35%

Monarch first try, but my sword took ~5-6 tries. I had great luck, however I might have stolen it from you.

stormravenx wrote: 2 years ago

I agree that it is 1/10, but luck definitely factors. I rolled 35%

Monarch first try, but my sword took ~5-6 tries. I had great luck, however I might have stolen it from you.

Well, even if the FCR IS randomly distributed across its possible range of values, it's still 1/11 not 1/10. 25-35 is 11 values, not 10.

tatarjj wrote: 2 years ago

stormravenx wrote: 2 years ago

I agree that it is 1/10, but luck definitely factors. I rolled 35%

Monarch first try, but my sword took ~5-6 tries. I had great luck, however I might have stolen it from you.

Well, even if the FCR IS randomly distributed across its possible range of values, it's still 1/11 not 1/10. 25-35 is 11 values, not 10.

11 indeed.

As someone who has crafted literally thousands of spirits (i.e. statistically significant amounts) in the still failed pursuit of a perfect one (still 1 off..multiple times..ugh!), I will say that yes, the distribution seems even. 1:11 for 35 is indeed supported by mass-testing. That selection is low enough for me to confirm.

The 1:1584 for a truly perfect one though...still failing there.
(1:11 on FCR x 1:24 on mana x 1:6 on absorb)

So far I’ve Re-rolled a Spirit

Sacred Rondache over 60 times without hitting 35 FCR. The other day I traded for a 5 pack of Spirit runes and 2 were 34 and 3 were 25.

Is this shield cursed? Please send

Cleansing auras.

RNG

Buckland wrote: 2 years ago

So far I’ve Re-rolled a Spirit

Sacred Rondache over 60 times without hitting 35 FCR. The other day I traded for a 5 pack of Spirit runes and 2 were 34 and 3 were 25.

Is this shield cursed? Please send

Cleansing auras.

RNG

i feel you, i've been trying to roll a 35 FCR Spirit in a 15% ED

Monarch i got near the beginning of ladder. figures that the first one i rolled in a non-superior base for my own use was a 35, despite only needing a minimum of 29 to hit my target breakpoint.

Cleansing

Cleansing

Cleansing

I decided to make one to relegate my

Stormshield to D-Clone and uber duty only. Third try in my self-found 14%

Monarch.

1st roll: 25% FCR, <100 mana, 3 magic absorb
2nd roll: 29% FCR, 108 mana, 8 magic absorb
3rd: I have since made another Spirit in a different

Monarch as a weapon switch shield to go with a future Call To Arms

Phase Blade. That Spirit rolled a 26% but it doesn't really matter since the entire 25-35% range is within the upper and lower bounds of the breakpoint that I can achieve with the rest of my gear.

I don't have particularly great luck with farming in general. In D2R, I've still yet to get a non-Hellforge rune drop higher than

Um, and despite all the

Fal,

Pul, and

Um rune drops, I've never gotten a

Lem drop. I've seen a

Sur drop in a public cow game that was out of my reach. I've not found a single unique worth a damn even though one of those happened to be

The Grandfather which nobody uses or values anymore. I'll gladly take some good fortune and RNG with runeword rolls because I sure don't get it anywhere else.

What are the chances of rolling a 35 112 8 then?

Cookryan wrote: 2 years ago

What are the chances of rolling a 35 112 8 then?

11 * 24 * 6 = 1584, so 1 in 1584