Spirit roll odds

Do we all agree that the chance to roll a 35% FCR Spirit is ~1/10?

I've used the

Hel +

Scroll of Town Portal recipe and hoarded Spirit runes many, many times now and I yet have to roll a 35.
Unfortunately I did not keep count but I would say I am easily at about 25 rerolls now, I've gotten 34% about 4 times and many 25% rolls.

This has got to be unlucky, right?

(I was going for a 35

Monarch first before trying to roll 35 on a

Crystal Sword and decent levelling

Rondache but now I'm scared)

i was just doing this again earlier and ive made at least 20 Spirit shields and 5 of them got 34%! lmao. damn range!

Its extra annoying because my sorc is literally 1% away from the next FCR breakpoint. lol FML

Glad to know I'm not the only one struggling! xD

It's the same for me, I'm waiting for that 35% so I can drop

Magefist and use

Chance Guards instead without going below 105 FCR but now it's been weeks and those perfect MF gloves have just been gathering dust in my stash...

Well I'm happy that I didn't have that much trouble lol My first roll was 33%, second for my soso was 35% and then ama 34%, but the first and third one didn't need the fcr so all good.

yeah i would say thats just bad luck. ive done this and gotten 35 like 4 times out of 20. i have four Spirit monarchs and i just reroll them till i get one that higher than i switch it out and reroll the other, so at least they are always increasing. however, rnjesus is a fickle bitch sometimes she can be quite the miser with her luck.

It is not guaranteed 1/10 to roll 35. I have rolled my SR perhaps 20 or more times, rolled it over 10 times just yesterday to get to 35 finally. Before that I rolled all 30fcr or under, 2* 25fcr in a row. When I got my 35 tho, it turned out as 111mana, 7mdr so not bad in the end.

In case anyone wanted to know, 9 more Spirit rolls today, still no 35 o.o

Peacku wrote: 3 years ago

In case anyone wanted to know, 9 more Spirit rolls today, still no 35 o.o

Statistically with infinite rerolls you will get one eventually but in theory it is still possible that you will never roll one.

I'm personally done with Spirit rerollin - just paid

Mal for one 35fcr/106mana/8absorb for my swap. Problem solved for me entirely. Perhaps i shall buy another one for main slot - it's better than

Stormshield when you're fast-cowin.

Just made a 35FCR out of about 30 rolls. It has a perfect 15%ED 171 def base, in case someone is interested, here is the link for the item:

Just made a 35FCR out of about 30 rolls. It has a perfect 15%ED 171 def base, in case someone is interested, here is the link for the item:

trade/monarch-15-ed-35fcr-perfect-roll-t672054.html

Is there a big difference between 34% or 35%? Or is it OCD?

SpaghettiTornado wrote: 2 years ago

Is there a big difference between 34% or 35%? Or is it OCD?

34% vs 35% might matter, consider Sorceress wearing

The Oculus,

Magefist,

Arachnid Mesh. With a 34% Spirit she'll be at 104% FCR and will be exactly 1% away from reaching the last realistic breakpoint. And OCD, if it doesn't matter.

SpaghettiTornado wrote: 2 years ago

Is there a big difference between 34% or 35%? Or is it OCD?

There are breakpoints for FCR, actually there are breakpoint for FHR/FBR as well.

Sometimes if missing that 1%, you won't be able to hit certain breakpoint, which DOES matter in game play.

Wouldnt the odds be 1/11 not 1/10

Correct. Since the range is 25-35 inclusive, it'd be 1/11.

Speaking as someone who has spent the past few weeks rolling hundreds upon hundreds of spirits...1/11 seems about right as well. Seemingly no "hidden bias" towards lower rolls.
(Sadly, the odds of a truly perfect Spirit aren't quite 1/11 ^^)

Have been lucky to roll a perfekt one.

Gris

post1873186.html#p1873186

grisuinthehouse wrote: 2 years ago

Have been lucky to roll a perfekt one.

Gris

post1873186.html#p1873186

Was about to throw all sorts of offers at you..until I read the part about the 143 base.

I managed to get every single 35/112/x variation at least once now, except for the elusive 8...RNG is just being mean!

The thing with low probability events, is that it's easy to go on a bad streak. If you roll a million of them, you'll get the right amount of perfect, but you'll also get streaks with 30, 40 misses in a row. Just variance.

But on a smaller streak, you can massively underperform your odds.

The odds of rolling perfect FCR are 1/11 (not 1/10).

The odds of not getting at least one over 11 rolls is 35%. ((10/11)^11)
The odds of not getting it with 20 rolls is 15%
30 rolls? 6%.
To go under a 1% odds, you need 49 tries in a row without success.

But you also need to consider the fact that thousands of people try to roll the same thing. So as unlikely as a <1% odds looks, someone is guaranteed to achieve this.

If 10,000 people try to reroll spirits, it's roughly 50-50 that one of them will go 100 rolls in a row without hitting 35.

That one person will think it's rigged or that the odds aren't 1/11 or that he's cursed... But statistically, it's not just normal, it's expected.

RNGesus works in mysterious ways. I rolled low Spirits in the 20%'s for like 10-15 in a row. I ask someone else to roll it for me, and it gets to 34% (shield) and 35% (sword) on first try. Ha.

As in life, if you're having bad luck, channel someone else's luck...

Still have to re-roll a 35% shield...