How rare is it to get 2 shakos within 5 Hell Andariel runs of each other?

It just happened to me and I was wondering how incredibly lucky I've been

Assuming my recollection of probability math isn't entirely off (which admittedly, it may well be by now..):
Something like (4+3+2+1) / 1931^5 or 10 in 26,847,964,747,178,651 or 1 in 2,684,796,474,717,865.1.

Also known as "pretty damn low".

Give or take a quadrillion, based on MF.

That is insane! Thanks for the calculations man. My first two shakos too.

That's hell of a lucky streak. You should buy some lottery tickets

Yeah, basic probability calculations can give you an exact number. I think Schnorki did a version of one such calculation right, but just define "

Shako" as a "win" or "success" as is typical of the examples and run The Maths based on the probability in those 5 runs. Probably a Binomial Distribution sort of calculation if using the "win/lose" construct.

All that said, don't squander those shakos since they are probably the only shakos you are going to see, unless you are some new prophet of RNGesus.

Yeah that's lucky.
I also would have a calculation when I gambled a soj first week of D2R, I also was lvl 80:)

Well, the SoJ via gambling can be done similarly. Assuming everything is independent (which all indication are that they are), your gambled SoJ isn't tied to how many others were gambling. So, the problem then becomes time independent, and the probability of getting a SoJ from gambling constrained by the trials/experiments/selection. So, P of getting an SoJ from 10 gambles or whatever. Super low, needless to say.

Of course, once you have said SoJ, and given you were one of the early SoJs, you were likely able to get whatever you wanted for that. Though there was a point in time when the market just wasn't ready for some of the higher stuff. I mean, the first

Ber dropped had to wait for the first

Jah and

Lo to drop to do the "

Ber 4

Jah+

Lo" classic trade.

Well, the odds of gambling an SoJ are easy enough to find, just by looking at a drop calc:
1:114 941 @ lvl 80

What makes it more interesting in terms of calculations is "in x gambles" or "by week x with y gambles/day" or some such bits. But since we have no idea how many rings you gambled within that first week and whether you were lvl 80 for all of them, we will never know what the odds were that you defeated.


Side note:
Corrected the calculation above (I think.. ^^) - turns out my recollection really was rather rusty.

That is fucking unlikely to happen. Congrats!

Just curious, how much MF you had and how much players in the game or /players x setting?

I wonder if 2 green rings dropping same time from both of

Baal's middle fingers would be rarer occurence than this...

annoynimous wrote: 2 years ago

I wonder if 2 green rings dropping same time from both of

Baal's middle fingers would be rarer occurence than this...

I got 2 Cathan's Seals from the same minion pack in

The Forgotten Tower. I mean, it was two set items, and two rings, so I should have been happy, right?

It's probably just my luck but I've found 11 shakos all on P1 so far which led me to believe they're not exactly as rare as they're made out to be. Most of them from Meph, a couple from Trav and Diablo and the rest from The Pit and the like. Again, I'm probably just lucky, and not taking anything away from OP, but it's been very interesting to find so many.

Xanhast wrote: 2 years ago

It's probably just my luck but I've found 11 shakos all on P1 so far which led me to believe they're not exactly as rare as they're made out to be. Most of them from Meph, a couple from Trav and Diablo and the rest from The Pit and the like. Again, I'm probably just lucky, and not taking anything away from OP, but it's been very interesting to find so many.

hey hey, thanks for crashing the

Shako market to a tiny

Pul rune ><

Leaker416 wrote: 2 years ago

annoynimous wrote: 2 years ago

I wonder if 2 green rings dropping same time from both of

Baal's middle fingers would be rarer occurence than this...

I got 2 Cathan's Seals from the same minion pack in

The Forgotten Tower. I mean, it was two set items, and two rings, so I should have been happy, right?

should have been... the dreaded green rings haunt me everytime I don't pick it up, few minutes later it drops again in another area.

I call it the haunting of Cathan

crocorinho wrote: 2 years ago

That is fucking unlikely to happen. Congrats!

Just curious, how much MF you had and how much players in the game or /players x setting?

I was shocked.

Players 1, 406% MF

Xanhast wrote: 2 years ago

It's probably just my luck but I've found 11 shakos all on P1 so far which led me to believe they're not exactly as rare as they're made out to be. Most of them from Meph, a couple from Trav and Diablo and the rest from The Pit and the like. Again, I'm probably just lucky, and not taking anything away from OP, but it's been very interesting to find so many.

Hey, no worries man. More power to you! I've just never had that happen to me, and I've been playing for years lol