The Great Annihilus Guessing Game [SC NON-Ladder]

Sooo for... reasons..., I have 871 unidentified

Annihilus charms on Softcore Non-Ladder LoD/Expansion (pre-RotW). They're currently all sitting in the "Previous Ladder Season's Shared Tash Tabs". (A) I don't have the stash space to move them all to my actual Non-Ladder shared stash tabs, (B) I don't have mental fortitude to undertake the monumental task of converting them one by one to RotW, and (C) I'm not willing to put anyone else through such a torturous endeavor. They will rot there and poof next ladder season reset unless I do something. At first I figured that I'd just identify them all and see what I get - but why not have some fun with it at the same time?

Spoiler

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Enter the Great

Annihilus Guessing Game!

But first, what's in it for you, you ask?

Well...
The person with the most correct guesses will get a free pick of any one

Annihilus of the bunch! Yep, if there's a perfect 20/20/10 in there, you may pick it!
Then the person with the second most correct guesses will get their pick.
Then the person with the third most correct guesses will get their pick.
Etc.

But wait! How does it work, exactly? What are you guessing?

Simple - give me a bunch of anni stat combinations and how many you think there are of each combination. If you get an amount correct, it counts as that many points. If you get the amount wrong you get zero points for that stat combination. Most points win!

Example:
Someone guesses that there will be:
1 x 20/20/10
2 x 20/19/10
1 x 19/20/10
4 x 18/18/5
5 x 15/16/7
Assuming that there really were that many of each of those combinations, the person would get 1+2+1+4+5 = 13 points. But if there actually were 2 x 20/20/10, 1 x 20/19/10 and 2 x 19/20/10, assuming the other guesses were correct, the person would get 9 points.

The more stat combinations you guess on the better chance you have of winning! It's just pure dumb luck either way because even though you can fall back on statistical averages, it's all RNG in the end. You can guess on at most 50 unique stat combinations, but like I said, you only get points if the number of annis of is correct.

I will reveal the actual number of annis of each stat combination sometime next weekend (May 1st-May 3rd).

Pro tip: All individual stat combos are equally likely. Our human brains tend to mentally clump the average rolls together and fool ourselves that perfect annis are more rare than any other roll, but they aren't. A 16/15/8 has the same chance of rolling as a 20/20/10.

You are such a hoarder...

Lmao, you know it

Wow, you are one poco loco capone.

Alright, let's get the game started:

14/16//7

Just for the hell of it:
20/20/10 x 871.

Amended, see next post down

MysticRanger200 wrote: 5 days ago

Wow, you are one poco loco capone.

Alright, let's get the game started:

14/16//7

You need to provide an amount - how many of 14/16/7 do you think there will be?
(and you may guess on more than one such combination - please put them in the same post if you do!)

Jesus Christ save us haha

14/16/7 = 34
15/15/5 = 5
16/17/9 = 15

Let me amend my previous guess...
[Literally every possible combination] x 871

Flaw in yer rules there, if by some miracle any one of them ends up at 871, the above guarantees a win as you can't beat 871 pts for whatever guess is correct.

So I'll go ahead and cover that suuuuuuuuuuper likely scenario (or...all 726 of them) and if by some miracle it happens, just pass the pick on to whomever is at #2.

18/15/8=26
17/17/7=14
20/20/10=3
10/10/5=4
18/19/9=15

If my understanding of probabilities is correct, you are statistically expected to have 1.20 perfectly rolled ones in there, so 20/20/10. Or 7.20 ones with 20/20/x.

( I calculate 11 possible results for stats, 11 for resistances and 6 for experience. So 871 / (11*11) or 871 / (11*11*6) )
*edit: replaced 1 with 871 :]

Schnorki wrote: 5 days ago

Let me amend my previous guess...
[Literally every possible combination] x 871

Flaw in yer rules there, if by some miracle any one of them ends up at 871, the above guarantees a win as you can't beat 871 pts for whatever guess is correct.

So I'll go ahead and cover that suuuuuuuuuuper likely scenario (or...all 726 of them) and if by some miracle it happens, just pass the pick on to whomever is at #2.

I think we're more likely to experience the sudden heat Death of the Universe than me identifying 871 of any one combination

ShadowHeart wrote: 5 days ago

Schnorki wrote: 5 days ago

Let me amend my previous guess...
[Literally every possible combination] x 871

Flaw in yer rules there, if by some miracle any one of them ends up at 871, the above guarantees a win as you can't beat 871 pts for whatever guess is correct.

So I'll go ahead and cover that suuuuuuuuuuper likely scenario (or...all 726 of them) and if by some miracle it happens, just pass the pick on to whomever is at #2.

I think we're more likely to experience the sudden heat Death of the Universe than me identifying 871 of any one combination

Couldn't help it and just tried to figure out the actual probability of it..turns out the number of possible combinations is so high, it literally breaks open office, lol
Somewhere around 1 in 1.035e2489. That's a lotta zeroes..
But hey, still a 726x higher chance to nail the max score than any normal guess.

Lol

Anyway... I think I'm gonna immediately amend the rules slightly - you are allowed to guess on at most 50 unique combinations of stats.

(don't want any smartass guessing "one of each!" and then proceed get a hundred or so points, because to be fair, a lot of combinations will appear exactly once)

I like this game! Whenever I see something like this I can't stop myself from trying to come up with the statistically optimal strategy... however that turns out far from trivial in this case

First, and most difficult to come around: if you killed 871 Dclones and not traded a single Anni, then it would be easy. But as you probably traded for some and traded away others, got another bunch of them as small change, etc., it is hard at least for me to guess the shape of the distribution!

Anyway, lets simply count the Annis as independent drops and then I believe every combination is equally likely. This yields 11*11*6 = 726 different combinations, or a 1/726 chance of any specific stat combination (e.g. 12/14/7, 20/20/10...). Meaning that on average, there should be about one (actually 871/726 ~= 1.2) Anni of each roll in your stash (again, not taking into account that we don't know what you prioritized when trading).

BUT, this does not make the winning strategy obivous - because you sum together the guesses, and higher guesses yield more points. So while I can guess that you have one of each roll, and likely score many correct guesses, it is far from obvious that I will win by this strategy. Because I get only one point per correct guess, while someone else might get 10 points for a single guess among several.

It is not super difficult to model what is the true optimal guess, I won't try it, but someone else surely will (regardless of what I wrote here) and use that strategy. But I'll go half way:

My guess is that there is exactly one (1) of each possible combination {10..20}/{10..20}/{5..10}.

There. I'll probably not win, but I aim for the honorable mention of the largest number of correct guesses (but likely not the largest point-sum, see above).

EDIT:

ShadowHeart wrote: 5 days ago

Lol

Anyway... I think I'm gonna immediately amend the rules slightly - you are allowed to guess on at most 50 unique combinations of stats.

(don't want any smartass guessing "one of each!" and then proceed get a hundred or so points, because to be fair, a lot of combinations will appear exactly once)

That's a great amend! It fends off nerds like me and makes the game of guessing what you traded for/away more relevant to play! Anyway I'll let my guess above stand, I'll just play my own game and see in two weeks how many I got correct. Perhaps I add a proper guess later. Cheers!

Not that I want an annahalas, or however the heck you spell it, but
37 of 8 12 7
29 of 13 6 4
How are you going to count them all? Use sticky notes?

ShadowHeart wrote: 5 days ago

(B) I don't have mental fortitude to undertake the monumental task of converting them one by one to RotW

Right because sifting through all the upcoming posts and having to compare them with the results won't be a momumental task

ShadowHeart wrote: 5 days ago

and (C) I'm not willing to put anyone else through such a torturous endeavor.

That's kind, but you'll be torturing yourself in the process I imagine
Best of luck though!


Also HOW do you have SO many?!

10x 10/10/10
23x 17/12/8
34x 14/15/7

Just a stab in the dark really I honestly don't expect to win or get near AT ALL
Just fun to see how this will all work out

In the area of random numbers, I like to think of any predicted result as a "reciprohesidecimal" or "a number that can only be defined as anything other than it is."

Thank you, Douglas Adams.

But I tossed a quick table into excel and rolled the 871 Anni's 20 times and got this as my top result:

Rank Combination
1 (14, 17, 8) 6.1
2 (19, 11, 6) 5.4
3 (12, 20, 9) 5.2
4 (16, 13, 7) 5.1
5 (10, 10, 5) 4.8
6 (20, 20, 10) 4.7
7 (15, 15, 8) 4.5
8 (11, 18, 7) 4.4
9 (17, 12, 9) 4.3
10 (13, 19, 6) 4.3

Hoping your Brownian motion generator works like mine!

ShadowHeart wrote: 5 days ago

Lol

Anyway... I think I'm gonna immediately amend the rules slightly - you are allowed to guess on at most 50 unique combinations of stats.

(don't want any smartass guessing "one of each!" and then proceed get a hundred or so points, because to be fair, a lot of combinations will appear exactly once)

And this is why we can't have nice things @Schnorki

Not sure I understand the rules, there is no penalty for getting one wrong?

Assuming I've understood the rules correctly- My guess:

1 x 20/20/10
1 x 20/20/9
1 x 20/20/8
1 x 20/20/7
1 x 20/20/6
1 x 20/20/5
1 x 20/19/10
1 x 20/19/9
1 x 20/19/8
1 x 20/19/7
1 x 20/19/6
1 x 20/19/5
1 x 20/18/10
1 x 20/18/9
1 x 20/18/8
1 x 20/18/7
1 x 20/18/6
1 x 20/18/5
1 x 20/17/10
1 x 20/17/9
1 x 20/17/8
1 x 20/17/7
1 x 20/17/6
1 x 20/17/5
1 x 20/16/10
1 x 20/16/9
1 x 20/16/8
1 x 20/16/7
1 x 20/16/6
1 x 20/16/5
1 x 20/15/10
1 x 20/15/9
1 x 20/15/8
1 x 20/15/7
1 x 20/15/6
1 x 20/15/5
1 x 20/14/10
1 x 20/14/9
1 x 20/14/8
1 x 20/14/7
1 x 20/14/6
1 x 20/14/5
1 x 20/13/10
1 x 20/13/9
1 x 20/13/8
1 x 20/13/7
1 x 20/13/6
1 x 20/13/5
1 x 20/12/10
1 x 20/12/9