Can someone enlighten me about TZ and Heralds?

So hello everyone,

I've been playing some offline games recently and I farmed my Warlock to level 90. I decided to do some TZ runs after grinding too much shards. I've nearly killed 150 heralds of Terror and not a single sunder charm dropped. Yeah, 0. 1 Latent Black Cleft dropped from a mob in River of Flame and that's it. I really wonder if I am doing something wrong?

I run Abyss warlock. I use Abyss and Miasma Chain to lower the health of the mobs and I make them explode with sigil: Death Mark. I also have Act2 merc and a bound spearwoman demon with me(because fun). I run all acts but mostly I run act1 TZ for terrorized andy with players 3 setup. I really don't understand why I can't sunder charms. Any help and info is much appreciated.

Thank you all upfront.

The chance of a Herald dropping a sunder (any sunder) is:

Tier 1 & 2: 1:101
Tier 3 & 4: 1:68
Tier 5: 1:51

The odds of not getting any sunders from 150 heralds, assuming all are tier 5, are about 5%. If they were all tier 1 or 2, then the odds are about 22.5%. If it’s more of a mix, it’s somewhere in between.

You, sir, just have shit for luck, unfortunately.

Yeah, I've been trying to avoid the harsh truth and telling myself it must be a bug or something but that's it I guess.... Not the first time my luck is mocking me though. Thank you for the info, kind sir

Syndesmosis wrote: 3 hours ago

Yeah, I've been trying to avoid the harsh truth and telling myself it must be a bug or something but that's it I guess.... Not the first time my luck is mocking me though. Thank you for the info, kind sir

Luck is probability taken personally.

Don't take it personally, it's just rnd and if you continue, things will even out.

vued wrote: 2 hours ago

Syndesmosis wrote: 3 hours ago

Yeah, I've been trying to avoid the harsh truth and telling myself it must be a bug or something but that's it I guess.... Not the first time my luck is mocking me though. Thank you for the info, kind sir

Luck is probability taken personally.

Don't take it personally, it's just rnd and if you continue, things will even out.

The things force me to take it personally since I experience this kind of stuff in my daily life too In the meantime, I killed 5 more and got 1 El rune and some shards

My suggestion (what works for me) would be to keep track of how many you're killing on a notepad etc, same as I've done for Countess farming, Key farming, statue farming, etc.

I have found that when you don't keep track, you always overestimate how many runs you have done (I wouldve done 5 countess runs and it felt like I had done 20 sometimes).

Also know that just because something has a 1 in 6 drop chance (for example sake) does not mean it automatically drops the 6th time. That's not how drop chances work. When you flip a coin you have a 1 in 2 chance of it being heads vs tails, but that doesn't mean you can't flip a coin 5x and get tails all 5x.

An easy (in my opinion anyway) way to keep track of run count is to use the lobby and create a game name with a number that you increment with each new game. Just remember to set a password unless you want random people to join. For example "synshards001", "synshards001", ... . Sure, the quick play button is faster, but it doesn't take a lot of extra time to just increment the number between runs. Saves you from writing down stuff as much stuff on the side, only need to note the Herald encounters and drops.

Syndesmosis wrote: 2 hours ago

vued wrote: 2 hours ago

Syndesmosis wrote: 3 hours ago

Yeah, I've been trying to avoid the harsh truth and telling myself it must be a bug or something but that's it I guess.... Not the first time my luck is mocking me though. Thank you for the info, kind sir

Luck is probability taken personally.

Don't take it personally, it's just rnd and if you continue, things will even out.

The things force me to take it personally since I experience this kind of stuff in my daily life too In the meantime, I killed 5 more and got 1 El rune and some shards

Same applies in personal life. You are not unlucky. There is just randomness without any intention for or against you.

You will lead a happier life if you don't tell yourself you are unlucky.

Things happen. It is what it is. Nothing more, nothing less.

BigD wrote: 1 hour ago

My suggestion (what works for me) would be to keep track of how many you're killing on a notepad etc, same as I've done for Countess farming, Key farming, statue farming, etc.

I have found that when you don't keep track, you always overestimate how many runs you have done (I wouldve done 5 countess runs and it felt like I had done 20 sometimes).

Also know that just because something has a 1 in 6 drop chance (for example sake) does not mean it automatically drops the 6th time. That's not how drop chances work. When you flip a coin you have a 1 in 2 chance of it being heads vs tails, but that doesn't mean you can't flip a coin 5x and get tails all 5x.

I have a python script that counts the runs for me. Everytime I click a specific combination it increments the number so that's how I count the runs but I stopped after 142 because I got tilted so that's why I assume the number. I may start counting again or I'll just give up counting.

ShadowHeart wrote: 1 hour ago

An easy (in my opinion anyway) way to keep track of run count is to use the lobby and create a game name with a number that you increment with each new game. Just remember to set a password unless you want random people to join. For example "synshards001", "synshards001", ... . Sure, the quick play button is faster, but it doesn't take a lot of extra time to just increment the number between runs. Saves you from writing down stuff as much stuff on the side, only need to note the Herald encounters and drops.

Yeah that's what I do on ladder and battle.net but this one is on offline single player, so I use a counter script I created, well used until 142 runs.

vued wrote: 1 hour ago

Syndesmosis wrote: 2 hours ago

vued wrote: 2 hours ago

Luck is probability taken personally.

Don't take it personally, it's just rnd and if you continue, things will even out.

The things force me to take it personally since I experience this kind of stuff in my daily life too In the meantime, I killed 5 more and got 1 El rune and some shards

Same applies in personal life. You are not unlucky. There is just randomness without any intention for or against you.

You will lead a happier life if you don't tell yourself you are unlucky.

Things happen. It is what it is. Nothing more, nothing less.

Jokes aside, what you say is totally correct. I'm trying to implement it in my life recently. Keeping it positive

@Syndesmosis
You have clearly been unlucky with your Herald drops, as has been said.
But a Latent Black Cleft from a mob in the time of "just" 150 heralds is actually lucky, I guess, considering that it is one of the rarest sunders in a Herald drop.

I have killed maybe 400-500 heralds and dropped more than 10 sunders since May (about 50-50 MF and heralds drops), lots of cold and poison sunders, but the magic sunder has eluded me far.

That's how RNG works.

mikelessar wrote: 45 minutes ago

@Syndesmosis
You have clearly been unlucky with your Herald drops, as has been said.
But a Latent Black Cleft from a mob in the time of "just" 150 heralds is actually lucky, I guess, considering that it is one of the rarest sunders in a Herald drop=

I have killed maybe 400-500 heralds and dropped more than 10 sunders since May (about 50-50 MF and heralds drops), lots of cold and poison sunders, but the magic sunder has eluded me far.

That's how RNG works.

I haven't thought that way, you are right about it