are key drops broken?

TheSoulReaver wrote: 1 day ago

I mostly find

Key of Hate, then sometimes

Key of Terror and rarely

Key of Destruction.
And when I get double drops it's

Key of Hate

Just look at this. It was one time only, however. Other double drops happens sometimes.

Florian_G wrote: 21 hours ago

Just look at this. It was one time only, however. Other double drops happens sometimes.

Jesus christ, I've never had that happen before. neither have I had triple keys

I've had 3 statues drop at one time

Sometimes drops seems to happen cyclically. Last Wed. I did a TZ Tals run, and over the half hour I had two Korlics drop, but I also had three Keys or hate drop. Then on the following Thursday, I did a TZ Tals, and a two Korlics dropped and two more keys of Hate. Then a couple of TZs later TZ Tals pops up again, and I get a Madawcz, and two more Keys of Hate. So in three TZ

Tal runs I got 5 statues, and 7 Keys of Hate. Sometimes the

Key drops simply makes no sense, hence the notion that some drops are cyclical.

No, drops aren't broken.

No, nothing has changed to affect drops (besides

Andariel being nerfed for ROTW)

No, Blizzard is not singling you out for any passed perceived transgressions

No, Blizzard is isn't changing drops for any reason (except during 22 nights of

Terror)

Yes, its RNG

Yes, its always been RNG

Yes, anything weird you see with drops is RNG

Knappogue wrote: 18 hours ago

I don't understand why this topic keeps coming up.

No, drops aren't broken.

No, nothing has changed to affect drops (besides

Andariel being nerfed for ROTW)

No, Blizzard is not singling you out for any passed perceived slights

No, Blizzard is isn't changing drops for any reason (except during 22 nights of

Terror)

Yes, its RNG

Yes, its always been RNG

Yes, anything weird you see with drops is RNG

I agree that nothing is broken but RNG isn't all that random since it can be easily manipulated in a number of ways. If RNG was fixed then magic find would be useless and yet it actually gives you percentage odds of how much your magic find is improved when you stack magic find items. If you look at drop tables you'll note that some rare drops such as the Unique

Unearthed Wand is almost impossible to find, just ask WarTheWise. RNG can vary by Item type, quality of item, as well as frequency and range. So yes RNG is used, but the result is not simply RNG.

mhlg wrote: 17 hours ago

Knappogue wrote: 18 hours ago

I don't understand why this topic keeps coming up.

No, drops aren't broken.

No, nothing has changed to affect drops (besides

Andariel being nerfed for ROTW)

No, Blizzard is not singling you out for any passed perceived slights

No, Blizzard is isn't changing drops for any reason (except during 22 nights of

Terror)

Yes, its RNG

Yes, its always been RNG

Yes, anything weird you see with drops is RNG

I agree that nothing is broken but RNG isn't all that random since it can be easily manipulated in a number of ways. If RNG was fixed then magic find would be useless and yet it actually gives you percentage odds of how much your magic find is improved when you stack magic find items. If you look at drop tables you'll note that some rare drops such as the Unique

Unearthed Wand is almost impossible to find, just ask WarTheWise. RNG can vary by Item type, quality of item, as well as frequency and range. So yes RNG is used, but the result is not simply RNG.

Were we not talking about keys?

Knappogue wrote: 17 hours ago

mhlg wrote: 17 hours ago

Knappogue wrote: 18 hours ago

I don't understand why this topic keeps coming up.

No, drops aren't broken.

No, nothing has changed to affect drops (besides

Andariel being nerfed for ROTW)

No, Blizzard is not singling you out for any passed perceived slights

No, Blizzard is isn't changing drops for any reason (except during 22 nights of

Terror)

Yes, its RNG

Yes, its always been RNG

Yes, anything weird you see with drops is RNG

I agree that nothing is broken but RNG isn't all that random since it can be easily manipulated in a number of ways. If RNG was fixed then magic find would be useless and yet it actually gives you percentage odds of how much your magic find is improved when you stack magic find items. If you look at drop tables you'll note that some rare drops such as the Unique

Unearthed Wand is almost impossible to find, just ask WarTheWise. RNG can vary by Item type, quality of item, as well as frequency and range. So yes RNG is used, but the result is not simply RNG.

Were we not talking about keys?

Yes we were but you added a variable by including RNG as part of your answer, and my response was to simply point out that Random Number Generation is necessarily all that random since it can be very easily manipulated. If Blizzard wanted to they could easily add a drop rate penalty for heavy

Key farmers to the game code just by increasing the range of number sets, which I believe is an important distinction.

mhlg wrote: 17 hours ago

Yes we were but you added a variable by including RNG as part of your answer, and my response was to simply point out that Random Number Generation is necessarily all that random since it can be very easily manipulated. If Blizzard wanted to they could easily add a drop rate penalty for heavy

Key farmers to the game code just by increasing the range of number sets, which I believe is an important distinction.

I was not the first person in this thread to reference random numbers. But I do appreciate you calling my post out about it

So you think the people who post these questions "are

Key drops broken?" are manipulating the RNG number seed? Huh. Interesting.

I don't think referencing outliers is quite the flex you think it is.

Knappogue wrote: 17 hours ago

mhlg wrote: 17 hours ago

Yes we were but you added a variable by including RNG as part of your answer, and my response was to simply point out that Random Number Generation is necessarily all that random since it can be very easily manipulated. If Blizzard wanted to they could easily add a drop rate penalty for heavy

Key farmers to the game code just by increasing the range of number sets, which I believe is an important distinction.

I was not the first person in this thread to reference random numbers. But I do appreciate you calling my post out about it

So you think the people who post these questions "are

Key drops broken?" are manipulating the RNG number seed? Huh. Interesting.

I don't think referencing outliers is quite the flex you think it is.

My post wasn't intended to call you out on anything, and I'm not saying that it's happening. I'm saying that it's possible, and knowing Blizzard, it wouldn't surprise me if they haven't considered it. Once again consider magic find, and then ask yourself, if Blizzard can provide players with the tools to increase the odds of item drops, then they can do it with anything. That's not referencing outliers that's referencing controlled probability.

mhlg wrote: 17 hours ago

Knappogue wrote: 17 hours ago

mhlg wrote: 17 hours ago

Yes we were but you added a variable by including RNG as part of your answer, and my response was to simply point out that Random Number Generation is necessarily all that random since it can be very easily manipulated. If Blizzard wanted to they could easily add a drop rate penalty for heavy

Key farmers to the game code just by increasing the range of number sets, which I believe is an important distinction.

I was not the first person in this thread to reference random numbers. But I do appreciate you calling my post out about it

So you think the people who post these questions "are

Key drops broken?" are manipulating the RNG number seed? Huh. Interesting.

I don't think referencing outliers is quite the flex you think it is.

My post wasn't intended to call you out on anything, and I'm not saying that it's happening. I'm saying that it's possible, and knowing Blizzard, it wouldn't surprise me if they haven't considered it. Once again consider magic find, and then ask yourself, if Blizzard can provide players with the tools to increase the odds of item drops, then they can do it with anything. That's not referencing outliers that's referencing controlled probability.

I get what you're saying. I do. But we are talking about keys. Something that is unaffected by magic find. Bringing things like drop rates of Unearthed Wands is confusing at best. If my post made you think I was referencing something outside of keys, that was not my intent.
Can manipulation of MF happen? Yes. Does intentional drop manipulation happen by people who make these types of posts? No.
That's why I'm getting at. Folks who think there is some disgruntled blizzard employee messing with drops. No one is secretly and officially messing with anyone(s) drops.

I get what you're saying. I do. But we are talking about keys. Something that is unaffected by magic find. Bringing things like drop rates of Unearthed Wands is confusing at best. If my post made you think I was referencing something outside of keys, that was not my intent.

Can manipulation of MF happen? Yes. Does intentional drop manipulation happen by people who make these types of posts? No.
That's why I'm getting at. Folks who think there is some disgruntled blizzard employee messing with drops. No one is secretly and officially messing with anyone(s) drops.

I was discussing

Key drops, and their relationship to RNG. I wasn’t implying even a little that magic find affected

Key drops, but I’m apparently not making my point clear.
In my first post in this thread I said sometimes (

Key) drops seem to happen cyclically. I then said I found 7 keys of Hate across 3 TZ Tombs runs, or 90 minutes.

In my 1st reply to you I said “I agree that nothing is broken” but RNG isn't all that random since it can be easily manipulated in a number of ways. To support that I stated “If RNG was fixed then magic find would be useless and yet it gives you percentage odds.” I wasn’t saying magic find affected

Key drop rates, because I know it doesn’t, but RNG does, just not all that randomly. I went on to point out there are drop rate tables, and said “yes RNG is used, but the result is not simply RNG.”

D2r drops are generated by pseudo-random number generators based on system time, rather than being truly random. This can give the perception of "flawed" streaks of bad luck or "bursty" drops of good luck, hence “cyclical.” So yes, I can see why someone might feel the game is somewhat broken or that their drop rates are being manipulated, and to be fair I don’t know that Blizzard hasn’t set a mechanism to manipulate drop rates.

mhlg wrote: 5 hours ago

In my 1st reply to you I said “I agree that nothing is broken” but RNG isn't all that random since it can be easily manipulated in a number of ways. To support that I stated “If RNG was fixed then magic find would be useless and yet it gives you percentage odds.” I wasn’t saying magic find affected

Key drop rates, because I know it doesn’t, but RNG does, just not all that randomly. I went on to point out there are drop rate tables, and said “yes RNG is used, but the result is not simply RNG.”

That's a very long and complicated way to agree with my original post. Yes I'm aware how RNG work. Yes I'm aware that 'RNG' is just the random number generated from a seed. Would it make you feel better if I wrote "the RNG process" instead of simply "RNG"? You seem to be trapped in the minutia over "RNG" vs "RNG process".

mhlg wrote: 5 hours ago

D2r drops are generated by pseudo-random number generators based on system time, rather than being truly random. This can give the perception of "flawed" streaks of bad luck or "bursty" drops of good luck, hence “cyclical.” So yes, I can see why someone might feel the game is somewhat broken or that their drop rates are being manipulated, and to be fair I don’t know that Blizzard hasn’t set a mechanism to manipulate drop rates.

Bad streaks of luck is part of the RNG process. Getting 100+ runs of no keys is 100% part of the process. They may "feel" its broken, but its not. That's the point I was initially making. Still not sure why you've been arguing my own point to me.

This has gone past stupid though. Seems ridiculous to argue over a point when we are both standing on the same side of the fence.

Knappogue wrote: 4 hours ago

mhlg wrote: 5 hours ago

In my 1st reply to you I said “I agree that nothing is broken” but RNG isn't all that random since it can be easily manipulated in a number of ways. To support that I stated “If RNG was fixed then magic find would be useless and yet it gives you percentage odds.” I wasn’t saying magic find affected

Key drop rates, because I know it doesn’t, but RNG does, just not all that randomly. I went on to point out there are drop rate tables, and said “yes RNG is used, but the result is not simply RNG.”

That's a very long and complicated way to agree with my original post. Yes I'm aware how RNG work. Yes I'm aware that 'RNG' is just the random number generated from a seed. Would it make you feel better if I wrote "the RNG process" instead of simply "RNG"? You seem to be trapped in the minutia over "RNG" vs "RNG process".

mhlg wrote: 5 hours ago

D2r drops are generated by pseudo-random number generators based on system time, rather than being truly random. This can give the perception of "flawed" streaks of bad luck or "bursty" drops of good luck, hence “cyclical.” So yes, I can see why someone might feel the game is somewhat broken or that their drop rates are being manipulated, and to be fair I don’t know that Blizzard hasn’t set a mechanism to manipulate drop rates.

Bad streaks of luck is part of the RNG process. Getting 100+ runs of no keys is 100% part of the process. They may "feel" its broken, but its not. That's the point I was initially making. Still not sure why you've been arguing my own point to me.

This has gone past stupid though. Seems ridiculous to argue over a point when we are both standing on the same side of the fence.

Agreed, but the reason so many feel drops might be broken is because of inherent flaws in pseudo-random number generation.

mhlg wrote: 4 hours ago

Agreed, but the reason so many feel drops might be broken is because of inherent flaws in pseudo-random number generation.

Aww man, I was hoping you'd keep arguing with me so I could post the Brick "I DONT KNOW WHAT WE'RE YELLING ABOUT!" meme

mhlg wrote: 5 hours ago

D2r drops are generated by pseudo-random number generators based on system time, rather than being truly random. This can give the perception of "flawed" streaks of bad luck or "bursty" drops of good luck, hence “cyclical.” So yes, I can see why someone might feel the game is somewhat broken or that their drop rates are being manipulated, and to be fair I don’t know that Blizzard hasn’t set a mechanism to manipulate drop rates.

Interestingly, you are actually not agreeing. Your argument "makes sense". You seem to have a different view on the R in RNG.

Knapp defends pure RNG and its randomness (there are no "cicles" just very unevenly distributed numbers) and mhlg is hinting at the widespread conspiracy theory Blizzard might manipulate or alter the mechanism. In the latter interpretations, streaks of bad or good luck would not purely be RNG but a curse or blessing of the "gods" (Blizzard).

So far, from my experience, I'm with Knapp here. I can see no proof for manipulations and I see no evidence that there might be hideen "entropy" like in Patrh of Exile.

https://www.poecurrency.com/news/path-o ... opy-system

mikelessar wrote: 2 hours ago

In the latter interpretations, streaks of bad or good luck would not purely be RNG but a curse or blessing of the "gods" (Blizzard).

Before every game session, I always say a

Prayer and make a small offering to RNGesus.

Knappogue wrote: 2 hours ago

mikelessar wrote: 2 hours ago

In the latter interpretation, streaks of bad or good luck would not purely be RNG but a curse or blessing of the "gods" (Blizzard).

Before every game session, I always say a

Prayer and make a small offering to RNGesus.

mikelessar wrote: 2 hours ago

mhlg wrote: 5 hours ago

D2r drops are generated by pseudo-random number generators based on system time, rather than being truly random. This can give the perception of "flawed" streaks of bad luck or "bursty" drops of good luck, hence “cyclical.” So yes, I can see why someone might feel the game is somewhat broken or that their drop rates are being manipulated, and to be fair I don’t know that Blizzard hasn’t set a mechanism to manipulate drop rates.

Interestingly, you are actually not agreeing. Your argument "makes sense". You seem to have a different view on the R in RNG.

Knapp defends pure RNG and its randomness (there are no "cicles" just very unevenly distributed numbers) and mhlg is hinting at the widespread conspiracy theory Blizzard might manipulate or alter the mechanism. In the latter interpretations, streaks of bad or good luck would not purely be RNG but a curse or blessing of the "gods" (Blizzard).

So far, from my experience, I'm with Knapp here. I can see no proof for manipulations and I see no evidence that there might be hideen "entropy" like in Patrh of Exile.

https://www.poecurrency.com/news/path-o ... opy-system

Close! I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories, but I am also a skeptic, and while I don't see any "proof" of manipulations I have no proof to the contrary either. What I am saying is that drops do have the appearance of being cyclical, and I can understand why some member might think that

Key drops "are broken."

This is a link to a study on PRNG.

https://journal.scsa.ge/wp-content/uplo ... rators.pdf

What does "cyclical" mean?

The drops are definitely not arranged in curves, like a sine curve. And good or bad drop do not "

Attract" more good or bad drops.
If you just mean that there are times when your drops are better (here: you get more several keys in just a few runs) and times when they are bad (40+ runs without any

Key), then you are right.

cyclical,
he means or this word usually means,
Like iron mine stock, there will be some time continue go lower and after several years, it become go up every day. But it remain in box Pattern.

Jump out of current server(asia to na) is my way to do keys. if you need effective, it need completely different way to play it out.

Like program manager, if you want to produce 100

Key in 8 hours, how do you do to short the production time (assume human unlucky man need 24 hr to do it)?


--note--

Key price also cyclical, it is week base. You can trade it to gain some profit but need a very huge inventory. I did some in last year.