Travincal in Nightmare is an excellent place to farm Grand Charms if you are looking for blue ones to reroll for +skills and +life. This is due to the area level being high enough to roll +skills, but low enough to rule out a lot of other stats to make it more likely.
When you get to act 3 leave and have the rusher make a game. Get trav wp, kill trav, go down stairs, go to durance level 2 wp and grab it because you won’t be able to take portals till you get the waypoint. Make new game, rusher runs down to meph, tp, kill meph and welcome to act 4.
Chance of finding at least one of a given high rune from the Travincal council members on players 1, plotted versus number of runs. The first is without the Find Item skill, the second is with a 70% Find Item skill.
How the chances were computed:
For a given rune, the formula used to compute the total drop chance p for a single trav run is
p = 11*([players 1 drop chance] + [find item chance]*[players 7 drop chance])
(There are 11 council members with the same drop chance for a given rune and players setting. The Find Item skill always gives the maximum number of drops [such as on players 7] when successful.)
We have a number of trials (runs) where each one has the same probability p for an event to occur (a given rune to drop). The number of drops of a given rune are therefore binomially distributed, such that the probability for x drops of a rune in n runs is given by
Px = bin(x,n,p)
Specifically, the probability for zero drops of a given rune in n runs is given by
P0 = bin(0,n,p)
and the probability for 1 or more drops of that rune in the same number of runs is
P1+ = 1 - P0
as the total probability must be 1 (either it drops once or more or it doesn't drop at all).
This formula was used to compute the chances for each rune (each p) for n in the range 0 - 10000 runs.
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