key droprate down?

Hey all,

I was just wondering since finding the keys never took me long and now no keys for weeks (despite doing only keyruns), I was wondewring whether there was an update that changed the droprate? Didn't see anything regarding this in the patchnotes...

knightfall

It's just RNG, I reckon, haven't heard anything about changed keys drop rates.

Gotta love how that question pops up as a new topic every what feels like 2 days.

RNG is RNG. You'll have times with tons of keys. You'll have times with little to no keys. That is all. Your "luck" changing does not indicate a change in actual overall drop rates. If drop rates ever really officially changed, you'd most certainly hear about it.

Schnorki wrote: 4 years ago

Gotta love how that question pops up as a new topic every what feels like 2 days.

RNG is RNG. You'll have times with tons of keys. You'll have times with little to no keys. That is all. Your "luck" changing does not indicate a change in actual overall drop rates. If drop rates ever really officially changed, you'd most certainly hear about it.

Roger that!

This is not criticism towards the OP (or anyone else), but humans in general have a hard time grasping probability and what it actually means, often greatly over-estimating how often things should happen. I'm not exempted from this, that's not at all my point, I'm just as guilty as anyone else of failing to fully understand probability theory. In a game like D2R, with an online component, it's also completely impossible to get the full picture of drop rates from the view of a single game instance. RNG is not about uniform distribution - someone is bound to get far more drops than others, and it's bound to vary a lot over time.

I know that. But other things within the game have changed without me finding anything in the patch notes.
And aside from rng it is possible that drop rates change if it is way too easy to get a torch. Plus: keys seem to be more looked for in the trades section recently…
Anyway: it was just a question…

Yeah I know, no worries
As Schnorki says, it's been asked many times (I haven't even been around that long, and I've seen a few topics on it).

Given the frequency of this topic, I really feel like something is off with Key drop rate..

I would say "no", nothing's changed recently, as I was having this problem months ago. Took me over 120 runs to get my first Key off summoner.

But after that, he seemed to drop them every 10-30 kills or so. Maybe just that first drop for me was extremely bad luck.. Hard to believe, but still possible.

Seems normal to me. Sometimes they drop at a steady expected rate. Sometimes I get a long drought and sometimes I get a flood. Pretty much what you'd expect to see in a random distribution.

I had a 72 straight runs of Nihlathak without a Key drop. It was actually longer going back to the day before but I didn't log those runs. I also had 2 consecutive days with 3 consecutive Key drops. That's all happened in the past week. Just keep plugging away and you'll see it all.