Accurate To-Hit Calculation?

I'm getting a lot of inconsistent results. I'm simply trying to get a feel for Chance-to-Hit. So I took to Hell and tried a specific and these are the numbers I'm getting:
LCS: 85%
maxroll: 95%
Peterpaulruben's AR Calc: 80%

Attacker stats:
Level 95
98 Dex
+878 AR
+345% AR

Target stats:
Abyss Knight (Hell)
Level 84
1879 Def

As you can see, these are all over the place. Any clue?

LCS does NOT take any defense reducing effects into account. Your maxroll profile has an Infinity on the merc, and the Conviction aura literally shreds monster defense. LCS does not take this into account at all. It also doesn't take into account ITD (Ignore Target Defense, which only works against normal mobs anyway), nor -X% Target Defense, if you have that on your weapon.

I'm not familiar with Peterpaulruben's AR calc, but I would trust maxroll in this case. Maxroll isn't perfect, it has its own share of shortcomings, but AFAIK that mostly concerns incorrect damage & IAS calculations for some skills, not hit-chance calculations.

In this case, you have an Infinity that has level 12 Conviction, which reduces enemy defense by -83% (works against all targets, including bosses, even ubers). So the monster's effective defense is 1879 * (1 - 0.83) = 319.

Also, do note that on the maxroll profile the target is marked as terrorized, so it's level 96 instead the usual 84, which impacts the hit chance calculation.

And finally, for the record, your maxroll profile suggest you're using Demon Machine - the explosion effect on Demon Machine always triggers regardless of whether the arrow hits or not. There's 2 effects here - the arrow itself carrying physical damage, which requires a hit check to determine if it does any damage, and the explosion effect which always triggers when the arrow passes through an enemy's hit box, regardless of the outcome of the hit check for the arrow itself.

ShadowHeart wrote: 1 year ago

LCS does NOT take any defense reducing effects into account. Your maxroll profile has an Infinity on the merc, and the Conviction aura literally shreds monster defense. LCS does not take this into account at all. It also doesn't take into account ITD (Ignore Target Defense, which only works against normal mobs anyway), nor -X% Target Defense, if you have that on your weapon.

I'm not familiar with Peterpaulruben's AR calc, but I would trust maxroll in this case. Maxroll isn't perfect, it has its own share of shortcomings, but AFAIK that mostly concerns incorrect damage & IAS calculations for some skills, not hit-chance calculations.

In this case, you have an Infinity that has level 12 Conviction, which reduces enemy defense by -83% (works against all targets, including bosses, even ubers). So the monster's effective defense is 1879 * (1 - 0.83) = 319.

Also, do note that on the maxroll profile the target is marked as terrorized, so it's level 96 instead the usual 84, which impacts the hit chance calculation.

And finally, for the record, your maxroll profile suggest you're using Demon Machine - the explosion effect on Demon Machine always triggers regardless of whether the arrow hits or not. There's 2 effects here - the arrow itself carrying physical damage, which requires a hit check to determine if it does any damage, and the explosion effect which always triggers when the arrow passes through an enemy's hit box, regardless of the outcome of the hit check for the arrow itself.

Hey, thanks for the reply. There are two ways to apply the Conviction in maxroll, one on the target which I disabled, the other is automatic and seemingly only removable by removing Infinity. Removing Infinity dropped it to 81%, which is consistent with OG Peterpaulruben. And there's no other sources of defense reduction, so mystery presumably solved.