I'm gearing up to make my first Uber run at a Hellfire Torch. How many runs is it taking for you guys to land the one you are looking for? Kinda blows that it doesn't drop the torch of the character you're running especially since it's so expensive to get to the big dance
I'm gearing up to make my first Uber run at a Hellfire Torch. How many runs is it taking for you guys to land the one you are looking for? Kinda blows that it doesn't drop the torch of the character you're running especially since it's so expensive to get to the big dance
Well, all classes are equally likely, so the odds are pretty easy to calculate. In general I would say you are only truly unlucky if it takes you more than like 9 attempts to get the class you want. But even that happens, not uncommon
Some time ago it was recommended to not identify the torch you find, but to sell it unidentified and with that buy the torch you actually want (might require multiple unidentified torches depending on the class) but since Reign of the warlock some people just had to ruin the market for everyone by transfering unidentified torches from l.o.d. which of course can't be warlock torches and now almost no one wants to buy unidentified torches anymore. So good luck!
Well consider how much easier it is for some classes to kill the ubers, paladins, assassins and now the warlock can do it quite easiliy with unexpensive gear while other characters need sunders and really high end gear to do that comfortably.. also if you are druid I think you can just ask for free one as no one will even try to sell an imperfect one.
Well, you got a 1/8 chance. RNG will be RNG. For anecdotal reference. When I was playing SSF several years ago. I wanted to get a torch for each class. It took like 14 tries to get a sorceress torch. When RotW dropped and warlock torches were like 40 Jah runes. I farmed some keys and got one in 4 tries.
Unless you have a bunch of keys stashed and you want multiple torches. You might be better off trading for the torch you want. Some of the lower rolled ones for less popular classes go for a handful of Perfect Gems. While a 3x3 Key set can trade for Ber or Jah.
Well, you got a 1/8 chance. RNG will be RNG. For anecdotal reference. When I was playing SSF several years ago. I wanted to get a torch for each class. It took like 14 tries to get a sorceress torch. When RotW dropped and warlock torches were like 40 Jah runes. I farmed some keys and got one in 4 tries.
Unless you have a bunch of keys stashed and you want multiple torches. You might be better off trading for the torch you want. Some of the lower rolled ones for less popular classes go for a handful of Perfect Gems. While a 3x3 Key set can trade for Ber or Jah.
Yeah I've got 2 runs worth of keys stashed right now for runs with my Abyss Warlock. I had tried to get one per-RotW with a sorceress and got a Lost Connection fault right after I opened the 3 portals. I was pretty pissed
Well, you got a 1/8 chance. RNG will be RNG. For anecdotal reference. When I was playing SSF several years ago. I wanted to get a torch for each class. It took like 14 tries to get a sorceress torch. When RotW dropped and warlock torches were like 40 Jah runes. I farmed some keys and got one in 4 tries.
Unless you have a bunch of keys stashed and you want multiple torches. You might be better off trading for the torch you want. Some of the lower rolled ones for less popular classes go for a handful of Perfect Gems. While a 3x3 Key set can trade for Ber or Jah.
Yeah I've got 2 runs worth of keys stashed right now for runs with my Abyss Warlock. I had tried to get one per-RotW with a sorceress and got a Lost Connection fault right after I opened the 3 portals. I was pretty pissed
If you've never run Ubers before, it might be a good idea to keep someone on call in case you find yourself in a fix, or you realize your build can't complete the run. Be sure to make a lobby password protected game, because it will allow you to save and exit the game and rejoin. This is especially useful if you die in a bad situation near say Lilith or in Uber Tristram, because it will allow you to save and exit and collect your body and gear in town.
Well, you got a 1/8 chance. RNG will be RNG. For anecdotal reference. When I was playing SSF several years ago. I wanted to get a torch for each class. It took like 14 tries to get a sorceress torch. When RotW dropped and warlock torches were like 40 Jah runes. I farmed some keys and got one in 4 tries.
Unless you have a bunch of keys stashed and you want multiple torches. You might be better off trading for the torch you want. Some of the lower rolled ones for less popular classes go for a handful of Perfect Gems. While a 3x3 Key set can trade for Ber or Jah.
Yeah I've got 2 runs worth of keys stashed right now for runs with my Abyss Warlock. I had tried to get one per-RotW with a sorceress and got a Lost Connection fault right after I opened the 3 portals. I was pretty pissed
If you've never run Ubers before, it might be a good idea to keep someone on call in case you find yourself in a fix, or you realize your build can't complete the run. Be sure to make a lobby password protected game, because it will allow you to save and exit the game and rejoin. This is especially useful if you die in a bad situation near say Lilith or in Uber Tristram, because it will allow you to save and exit and collect your body and gear in town.
Wow, this excellent advice. I would have never thought of that. Thank you
Yeah I've got 2 runs worth of keys stashed right now for runs with my Abyss Warlock. I had tried to get one per-RotW with a sorceress and got a Lost Connection fault right after I opened the 3 portals. I was pretty pissed
If you've never run Ubers before, it might be a good idea to keep someone on call in case you find yourself in a fix, or you realize your build can't complete the run. Be sure to make a lobby password protected game, because it will allow you to save and exit the game and rejoin. This is especially useful if you die in a bad situation near say Lilith or in Uber Tristram, because it will allow you to save and exit and collect your body and gear in town.
Wow, this excellent advice. I would have never thought of that. Thank you
Before you get started make certain that your lightning resistance is near or above 300%, because other wise you will get one shot killed by Mephisto with his level 20 Conviction which will drop your resistance to zero. One way is to stack your stash with as many lightning resist charms as you can stuff in, and then before you go after Meph, you can use a Treachery runeword armor to proc level 15 fad Fade which will increase your resists by 79% for 4.8 minutes which is enough time to kill meph. You proc Fade by going outside Harrogoth where you stand in fire until Fade procs.
If you've never run Ubers before, it might be a good idea to keep someone on call in case you find yourself in a fix, or you realize your build can't complete the run. Be sure to make a lobby password protected game, because it will allow you to save and exit the game and rejoin. This is especially useful if you die in a bad situation near say Lilith or in Uber Tristram, because it will allow you to save and exit and collect your body and gear in town.
Wow, this excellent advice. I would have never thought of that. Thank you
Before you get started make certain that your lightning resistance is near or above 300%, because other wise you will get one shot killed by Mephisto with his level 20 Conviction which will drop your resistance to zero. One way is to stack your stash with as many lightning resist charms as you can stuff in, and then before you go after Meph, you can use a Treachery runeword armor to proc level 15 fad Fade which will increase your resists by 79% for 4.8 minutes which is enough time to kill meph. You proc Fade by going outside Harrogoth where you stand in fire until Fade procs.
Just to expand on the math a bit, there is no answer to the question "how many runs does it take" because it is random. But it is possible to compute the chance to have found a specific Torch after X runs. For one run, the chance is 1/8 (as noted by others above) and therefore the chance of not getting it is 7/8.
The chance to have something happen X times in a row if it has probability p is p^X. In this case we have to compute the chance of failing to get a torch for the desired class X times in a row, and then subtract that from 1 to get the probability of not failing to get the desired torch X times in a row. This yields the formula:
1 - (7/8)^X
Replace X with the number of attempts, and paste into any calculator that accepts that kind of string (e.g. Google, or Windows calculator in scientific mode).
Usually available after 21CET. Most of my Expansion trades can be converted to RotW, just ask.
Just to expand on the math a bit, there is no answer to the question "how many runs does it take" because it is random. But it is possible to compute the chance to have found a specific Torch after X runs. For one run, the chance is 1/8 (as noted by others above) and therefore the chance of not getting it is 7/8.
The chance to have something happen X times in a row if it has probability p is p^X. In this case we have to compute the chance of failing to get a torch for the desired class X times in a row, and then subtract that from 1 to get the probability of not failing to get the desired torch X times in a row. This yields the formula:
1 - (7/8)^X
Replace X with the number of attempts, and paste into any calculator that accepts that kind of string (e.g. Google, or Windows calculator in scientific mode).
Yeah I understand the math. It's just basic probability. I'm simply polling the forum to see real in the field results
If you've never run Ubers before, it might be a good idea to keep someone on call in case you find yourself in a fix, or you realize your build can't complete the run. Be sure to make a lobby password protected game, because it will allow you to save and exit the game and rejoin. This is especially useful if you die in a bad situation near say Lilith or in Uber Tristram, because it will allow you to save and exit and collect your body and gear in town.
Wow, this excellent advice. I would have never thought of that. Thank you
Before you get started make certain that your lightning resistance is near or above 300%, because other wise you will get one shot killed by Mephisto with his level 20 Conviction which will drop your resistance to zero. One way is to stack your stash with as many lightning resist charms as you can stuff in, and then before you go after Meph, you can use a Treachery runeword armor to proc level 15 fad Fade which will increase your resists by 79% for 4.8 minutes which is enough time to kill meph. You proc Fade by going outside Harrogoth where you stand in fire until Fade procs.
More excellent advice. It would seem that I would have died anyway. The lost connection just saved me some time and additional Grief lol
I'm simply polling the forum to see real in the field results
With my Warlock I got a torch for him from third run. I was really lucky.
With my other characters I had 19 runs before I got my first barbarian torch.
You can use rule of three to estimate the number of runs needed for 95% chance of getting 1 Warlock torch or 1 TerrorKey. To be honest, the article talks about a reverse task.
So, to surely get 1 desired torch (i.e. with 95% confidence) you would need about 24 runs. Here is a progression of confidence value against number of runs for 1 torch:
And this table shows how much more efficient it is to hunt for more than 1 torch (the more the runs, the more you can be sure to get (total runs)/8 Warlock torches):
Finally, there is also a chance to get 2 torches, or more:
I had tried to get one per-RotW with a sorceress and got a Lost Connection fault right after I opened the 3 portals. I was pretty pissed
Never open all three portals at once. Open 1 portal and get the organ. Repeat. That way if you lose connection you can save yourself a few keys.
Will buy any 3 minor keys for an Ist - message me.
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