Is the drop algorithm intuitive?

This is my first season playing D2R. I've been playing Path of Diablo and EuropeBattle for the last few years.

I have noticed that the algorithm for drops seems to know what items are being picked up and inspected.

I have many games where I'm doing an MF run, and I'll pick up an item like a magic ring, ammy, or socketed armor, to have a rare or unique version of those items drop not too long after.

... I was in a

Baal run earlier today; I commented on wanting

Tal Rasha's amulet in the game chat, and not 10 seconds later, a

Tal ammy drops from minions.

Speak of the devil and he shall appear.

I'd like to say it's a coincidence, but it happens more often than not. I wondered if someone had an opinion or knew anything about how the drop algorithm works on the backend regarding incidents like these.

MF increase your chances of a item to be magic/rare/unique/set (but have diminishing returns, except for magic - ex: 168% mf gives you ~100% increase in the chance of a item being unique - you can see the exactly increase for each type on https://maxroll.gg/d2/d2planner/).
But MF do not increase the chance of a specific base type to drop (the game choose the base type first, and then the quality - magic/rare/etc... - that is when mf will make difference)

Other than that... it is just pure random ... and luck...

fredkid wrote: 2 weeks ago

MF increase your chances of a item to be magic/rare/unique/set (but have diminishing returns, except for magic - ex: 168% mf gives you ~100% increase in the chance of a item being unique - you can see the exactly increase for each type on https://maxroll.gg/d2/d2planner/).
But MF do not increase the chance of a specific base type to drop (the game choose the base type first, and then the quality - magic/rare/etc... - that is when mf will make difference)

Other than that... it is just pure random ... and luck...

image.png

I'm running 368% MF right now on my MF Sorc...

Another good example from my last MF Run: gloves.

I'd found two sets of blue

Heavy Bracers and

Demonhide Gloves. Picked them up, ID'd them.

Flamestike drops rare

Heavy Bracers, Andarial drops rare

Bramble Mitts, and then

Mephisto dropped another pair of blue

Heavy Bracers.

I'd experienced coincidences over 20+ years of playing this game, but never like I have since I came back and started on D2R. It's just really strange. It's getting to the point where I'm becoming superstitious to the point that if I want to increase the chance of a specific type of item dropping, I need to pick up a similar item before killing the boss.

I know it's supposed to be random and luck...

FrostyFeet7 wrote: 2 weeks ago

I'd experienced coincidences over 20+ years of playing this game, but never like I have since I came back and started on D2R. It's just really strange. It's getting to the point where I'm becoming superstitious to the point that if I want to increase the chance of a specific type of item dropping, I need to pick up a similar item before killing the boss.

I know it's supposed to be random and luck...

Make a benchmark so will be sure.

Tornado_OLO wrote: 2 weeks ago

FrostyFeet7 wrote: 2 weeks ago

I'd experienced coincidences over 20+ years of playing this game, but never like I have since I came back and started on D2R. It's just really strange. It's getting to the point where I'm becoming superstitious to the point that if I want to increase the chance of a specific type of item dropping, I need to pick up a similar item before killing the boss.

I know it's supposed to be random and luck...

Make a benchmark so will be sure.

It feels like the drop algorithm has become intuitive, and by picking up items, especially ID'ing them, it informs the client, "These are the items my character needs" versus what you want, and then the algorithm adjusts accordingly. I wouldn't be making this post if I hadn't gone through a few thousand MF runs.

Now I want to run a formal experiment. Lol.

That's what I was talking about ^^.

This is called the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon.

"The Baader-Meinhof effect involves two cognitive processes: selective attention and confirmation bias. Selective attention occurs when your brain subconsciously decides that something is important and starts noticing it more. Confirmation bias happens when you start to believe that something is more prevalent because you are seeing it more often, even if the frequency hasn't actually increased."

https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/ ... omenon.htm

The droptables are the same as in D2X, and as someone who modded those a lot back 20 years ago, no, there's absolutely no room for anything but random chance there.

Same phenomenon as when one expects a child and starts seeing pregnant women everywhere