RNG question

so if you start a fresh game, as usual, the "statistical counter" starts to run. say you need 1 out of 3000 to get something, and you do that 3k runs, and you get it.
but say you did 2500 runs and didn't get, and you come back tomorrow for another 500 runs, does that accumulate to the "statistical counter"???

or does it reset for each run??

I mean it can, most probably.

someone please explain this to me.

Unless I am very much mistaken, there is no counter, only probability. It's like rolling a die, you have a 1/6 chance to get a 6, and that 1/6 never changes, even if you've already rolled the die 10 times without getting a 6.

Janet the Java wrote: 1 year ago

Unless I am very much mistaken, there is no counter, only probability. It's like rolling a die, you have a 1/6 chance to get a 6, and that 1/6 never changes, even if you've already rolled the die 10 times without getting a 6.

That's all true what You say.

ok.
so basically its resetting for each drop? is that more correct to say?


that means you could do a chance of 1/3000 milion times and not get it... yikes..

Ber seems very far now.

rikus wrote: 1 year ago

ok.
so basically its resetting for each drop? is that more correct to say?


that means you could do a chance of 1/3000 milion times and not get it... yikes..

Ber seems very far now.

Exactly. But to be more positive, kill enough stuff and you will drop a

Ber one day.

There is no counter and nothing to reset.

Imagine a

Ber has a 1:6 chance of dropping (yes, that number is way off ).

Now, that 1:6 chance does not mean there's a counter going up and after 6 kills you're guaranteed a

Ber.
It basically means that every time you kill something, you roll a die. If that die lands on a 6, you get a

Ber. If it lands on a 1-5, you do not get a

Ber.

As a result, you could go 6, 9, 12 or even 50 runs without a

Ber if you're unlucky. Or you could do 6 kills and get 6

Ber out of it if you're lucky. Regardless of how many runs and kills you already stacked up, the odds for the next kill are always the same.

The only thing changing are the "odds for your farming session overall" as that's a simple matter of statistics:
1 kill = 1:6 = ~17% chance for one
2 kills = 1 - (5:6 ^ 2) = ~30% chance for at least one

Ber
3 kills = 1 - (5:6 ^ 3) = ~42% chance for at least one

Ber

And so on and so forth. But even over the entire session, regardless of how long it is, statistics remain theoretical. There is no counter that would eventually guarantee you what you're after.

Janet and Schnorki explained this fallacy, but FWIW, Blizzard introduced (at least in the past) "bad luck protection" in World of Warcraft. It's unlikely that such mechanics was introduced also in D2R (at least on the server side - BN may work differently than SP); more likely in D4. But who knows; AAA devs are experts at making games addictive.

there is no counter.

it's rng.
this rng is calculated every time something drops.

this is not final fantasy 14.

The chance to NOT get it after 2500 runs is (2999/3000)^2500 = 43.45 %
That is still high.

After 3000 that is 36% so more than 1 chance over 3.

And after 5000 there is still an 19% chance of NOT getting it.
And after 10000 there is still a 3,5% chance of NOT getting it.
etc...
The chance of getting it approaches 100% as the number of runs increases, but it never actually reaches 100%. I.e., there is never a guarantee, there's just probability.
Maths

Ok. Then how do you know, by that formula, that p8 slower kills gives you less chance? For example if you do 10 runs on a chance for 1/3000 vs 10 runs on a chance of 1/300?
That means, and by all means correct me, and you will, that if it takes you ten times to finish a run it’s basically the same chance?

What I mean is, that run speeds vs p8 aren’t as linear according to drop ratios? Each mob has different ratio.

Bottom line - run speed should match ratios. Or else you’d be running fast but still with much less chances?

It gets incredibly complex when you start talking about this in more depth. In particular when it comes to special mobs (champions and uniques), as they can drop more than 1 thing at the same time and each potential drop has an individual (independent) NoDrop roll to determine whether something actually drops from that potential drop, and each drop may roll from different TCs (Treasure Classes). Some drops from special mobs are also guaranteed (no NoDrop roll). Also, in p8/1 (meaning a p8 game but you are farming alone) the NoDrop chance is 14.29% and in p1 it's 62.5%, so it's not a 10x higher chance, it's a 2,3x chance of actually passing the NoDrop roll and get something to drop. But not for the guaranteed drops, those are always guaranteed (like how all uniques always drops an item and some potions).

Here are the NoDrop chances for various player numbers:
https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/d2r/t ... ops/106237

EDIT: Hopefully someone smarter than me can come along and provide more Insight

hotdamn. so this game actually does encourage us to play as a group.
according to your link, a no drop of 1%~ is for p8/8(meaning 8 real players in the 8 players).

I thought it was said that players 7 is less than p8? perhaps that's rune drops?

perhaps they'll invent a udemy course for understanding how RNG works in d2...

More accurately, it encourages you to play alone while 7 other people in the game do the same.

If you actually play together, your overall loot odds go up a good bit, true, but they don't move up even remotely far enough to make up for the fact that 8 people are being kept busy getting that loot.

Add in the fact that every class has multiple builds perfectly capable of clearing stuff by themselves, often times frankly completely "overkilling" it, and 8 people does not equate 8x the speed if you actually play together. More commonly than not, it doesn't even double your speed but the overall speed stays very close to that of the fastest soloer in the group (can't go faster than "instant" after all).

I dare say that for pretty much any 8 randomly picked people, if they just played solo in p1 games, they would get far more total loot in the same amount of time than they would actually playing together (i.e. not split up) in the same game.

well that assumption is based if they are actually good players who knows their stuff and have builds that can actually 'player 8 over kill ability'.

also, that logic of RNG just makes me want to play the game without thinking about chances...i.e. play for fun again.. runs are so tempting.