[Guide] Farming Tal Rasha's Adjudication

After farming for

Tal Rasha's Adjudication for about a full week, I decided to write a forum post in regards to how I went about it, and to provide a statistical analysis of what I discovered along the way. I think doing this would prove useful for others who decide to go down the same path in the future. You will hopefully see, assuming much of my math and assumptions are correct, that farming

Tal Rasha's Adjudication is not a simple or easy feat. This is a hard thing to do, and takes a great deal of time and patience.

TL;DR:

Don't do it. Just don't. Save up for a

Vex, or whatever the current market price is and just buy one. Trying to farm this amulet is soul-crushing.

My Setup:

When I started farming

Tal Rasha's Adjudication, it was the last part of the set I needed. In other words, I was already wearing a full set of tals, but opted for a

Shako instead of wearing the

Helm. I was also a lvl 85-86 Meteorb sorc. I had around 350% MF (more on why this doesn't matter later). If you're planning on farming this amulet with any other class, DO NOT DO IT. Having

Teleport or Enigma is absolutely required to do this. If you shrug this off, you might as well be adding a x4 multiplier to every time related approximation that I give below. I'm not joking. May Cthulhu have mercy upon your soul if you ignore this warning.

Farming Tactics:

Alright, let's start getting into the juicy bits.

Andariel is our target, because she has the greatest chance to drop amulets. It also helps that she's quest bugged, meaning we get far better drops from her than normal monsters or other bosses. Farming her in Nightmare was ideal for me, because my merc wouldn't be killed by her, and having his Insight aura really helped with teleporting through the catacombs in a quick and cost effective manner. You could also farm for

Tal Rasha's Adjudication in Hell, too if you wanted. By farming in Hell you could find better loot along the way, however, this does change the probabilities, and I will not really be discussing Hell probabilities in this forum post (If you get down to it, it's actually slower and you get worse odds in hell). Really, I just want to say that while you're doing this, you should be doing each run as resource free as possible. What I mean by that is each run should cost you zero gold except for the cost of identify scrolls. If you're using any potions at all, or rezzing your merc, you're NOT ready for this. You will go broke too fast for it to matter. Each run should net you only gains, and you should be using no mana or health potions. If you can do that in Nightmare, you should be good.

Next we need to talk about the layout of catacombs. When you take the waypoint, the stairs are normally to the right. I say normally, because sometimes it's not true. However, you should always go right after taking the waypoint into

Catacombs Level 2. Just do it, and get used to it, because trust me, it gets annoying real fast when the stairs are right there and you decided to not go right first. As for level 3 of catacombs, it's completely random. I cannot give you any tips about this floor. You just have to

Teleport around fast and find the stairs. Given time, you will start to identify how limited the layout is for catacombs, and that will greatly speed up finding the stairs. After about 600+ runs through catacombs, I started to recognize corners and layouts I had already seen before. I "knew" where the stairs were immediately in lvl 3 sometimes, just by teleporting around a few feet. This takes time and experience; you will see what I mean when you exceed a few hundred runs and are actually paying attention.

Next let's talk about speed. Speed is what really matters here. I would ballpark most of my runs to roughly < 30 seconds per kill. These are fast. Sometimes I even got stairs quite literally side by side and getting to

Andariel took a matter of seconds. It should also be noted that it's possible to kill

Andariel too fast. As of the time of writing this, (10/20/2021), Blizzard has implemented a lockout timer for runs. I don't know how this works, but I know that if you kill

Andariel in < 15 seconds or so, you will be prevented from remaking a game for about 30 seconds. This may not exist at the time of you reading this in the future. Lucky you! This means that although you do want to be fast, you don't want to be too fast. I suggest that if you're going too fast (Good layout with stairs right next to each other), that you slow down and kill a boss pack or two along the way. This is better than sitting and waiting in the character page for your timer to expire.

Probabilities:

(Sources: https://dropcalc.silospen.com/item.php and https://d2.maxroll.gg/d2-drop-calculator)

The chance for

Andariel to drop an amulet is different for both sources above. Silospen claims 1 in 25, and maxroll claims 1 in 21. I personally feel like 1 in 25 is more accurate, but I actually don't know. Either way, let's just assume for the sake of argument and the probabilities below, that we take the high estimate of Silospen and say that

Andariel has a 1 in 25 chance to drop an amulet. Good? Good.

Ok, so each time we kill

Andariel, there is a 1 in 25 chance (4%) that she will drop an Amulet. If each run takes us 30 seconds, that makes the total estimated time for a chance to find one amulet roughly 12.5 minutes. Yes, you read that correctly. It will take you roughly 12.5 minutes to find one amulet. Non stop runs; no breaks.


But we're not done yet! At 350% and greater Magic Find, there is a 60% chance that amulet will be a green set item. It should be noted that anything higher than 350% magic find is completely redundant. Diminishing returns nets you fractions of an increase (The difference between 350% and 400 is literally +1% and the odds of +1% helping you is 1 in 100). Essentially, it's meaningless to go over 350% MF for farming tals ammy. You should be focused more on killing speed instead.

Ok, so if the amulet only has a 60% chance to be a green set amulet, that essentially doubles our time. Instead of 12 minutes, we're now looking at roughly < 25 minutes for a chance to find a single green set amulet. Non stop kills. No breaks. 25 minutes between each green set amulet.

So we spend those 25 minutes grinding hard. We finally get a green set amulet. We joyously identify it and.....it's not

Tal Rasha's Adjudication.... So what happened? Well, my friend, now you get to truly start hating yourself. You see, there are other set amulets that can roll, too. And most of them have a higher spawn rate. here's a table to illustrate this:
So, by totaling the rarities of these set amulets, we come out to a 1 in 44 (We'll take the total as it's presented even though it's actually 45). So yes. Every time you identify a set amulet, you have a 1 in 44 chance that it will be a

Tal Rasha's Adjudication. That's an estimated 2.27% chance. Every single time. Now, what can we thereby glean from this if we were to ballpark total runs? Well...first off, let's stop talking about runs completely you goofy goober, because they're by this point in time, hilariously meaningless. Now you're focusing on time and how many green amulets you can find. Which as we've stated, is roughly one every 25 minutes. In order to have a 49.99% chance to find one

Tal Rasha's Adjudication, you would need to find 22 green amulets. This would take approximately 9.16667 hours of non stop play time; without breaks. For a 99.9% chance to find one

Tal Rasha's Adjudication you would thereby need to spend an estimated 18.33333 hours of non stop grinding; without breaks.

But hey, you want to truly feel the insanity? You could also just drop

Tal Rasha's Adjudication on your very first kill.... or none after thousands.

Can you feel it now Mr. Krabs?

Closing statement:

Some of this math may be wrong. If it is, please help me correct it. You won't be helping me, you will be helping people who wish to use this knowledge later, and as such, you will be providing them with more accurate information and statistics.

you at least get the bonus of a possible soj drop :^) i ended up getting an soj when i was hunting tals a week ago and still haven't got tals lmao

anfractu0us wrote: 3 years ago

you at least get the bonus of a possible soj drop :^) i ended up getting an soj when i was hunting tals a week ago and still haven't got tals lmao

I did indeed find 1 SOJ while doing this! Very happy about it!

Well brought up topic, a friend and I have been hunting and using various drop calls and personal assumptions on stuff over the years. I like the 350 MF point, I feel it get's slept on but also want to touch up on something. So maybe we have the drop calc wrong but at 350 mf 1 player Andy's drop odds of adj are 1:1864 at least on silos 1:1602 on max (quested) but that's just the odds to drop the item (right?) so in theory with her dropping like 4 items or so average the odds should shift to 1:466 in every run essentially. Or is that incorrect? Either way my friend and i have farmed a lot and seem to be over drop rate so we've kind of concluded that over the years. I've only ever seen one other person talk about this, mind you i haven't looked hard on the topic. All that being said i wonder how feasible it is to join nightmare game with 4+ people, given we can swap difficulties now her odds almost double at a 5 players game.

Krythic wrote: 3 years ago

It should be noted that anything higher than 350% magic find is completely redundant. Diminishing returns nets you fractions of an increase (The difference between 350% and 400 is literally +1% and the odds of +1% helping you is 1 in 100). Essentially, it's meaningless to go over 350% MF for farming tals ammy. You should be focused more on killing speed instead.

After 368% it's worse than redundant, it's hurting your chances.

I mentioned this in discord yesterday, and this is the point I was trying to allude to. The relationship between the chance to find a particular item and MF % isn't always increasing in context of a specific item. The rule of "The more MF % the better" only applies when you don't care what you find as long as it's a set/unique item, as well as the subsequent need to factor in diminishing return. It doesn't always hold true depending on the rarity of a specific item you are looking for. For

Tal's ammy, it does have an optimal % MF to give you the "best" chance of finding it. Anything higher will decrease your chance to find the item. So it's more than not helping you very much, it's hurting you. According to calculator on silopen, the optimal for

Tal's ammy is 367% (366%-368%, but I'm assuming the middle would have highest % if it wasn't rounded). Anything more than this will have the same chance as some percent lower than 366%.

Here's a table with chance by % MF
There is a slight dip in chance after 362% before it increases again, and a downward trend after 368%. One can also use the above table to determine how many additional runs you would need do using a lower % MF.

Let's assume for simplicity the % chance is the same for 350% MF as it is 367% MF and use Krythic's numbers. So for instance, if you used ~250% MF, you have a 11.86% lower chance to find it, so the 18.33 hours will become (18.33333 * 111.86% = 20.47, or 2.17 hours longer (or @ 30 sec per run, 260 additional runs).

So you then have to ask yourself how much longer is it taking to kill with lower powered but higher mf gear vs higher powered but lower mf gear? Which % is higher?

@Krythic Interesting analysis you put together, both nice job on that, and having the followthrough to MF for

Tal's ammy for a week.

Theoutrank wrote: 3 years ago

Well brought up topic, a friend and I have been hunting and using various drop calls and personal assumptions on stuff over the years. I like the 350 MF point, I feel it get's slept on but also want to touch up on something. So maybe we have the drop calc wrong but at 350 mf 1 player Andy's drop odds of adj are 1:1864 at least on silos 1:1602 on max (quested) but that's just the odds to drop the item (right?) so in theory with her dropping like 4 items or so average the odds should shift to 1:466 in every run essentially. Or is that incorrect? Either way my friend and i have farmed a lot and seem to be over drop rate so we've kind of concluded that over the years. I've only ever seen one other person talk about this, mind you i haven't looked hard on the topic. All that being said i wonder how feasible it is to join nightmare game with 4+ people, given we can swap difficulties now her odds almost double at a 5 players game.

I will say that this may shift the odds. I also had one time (out of about 600 runs give or take), where Andy dropped three amulets. This is apparently pretty rare, and I don't exactly know how it works, which is why I didn't mention it. Here's a picture that I posted on Discord when it happened:
Two of them were set amulets, and one was a yellow. So yes, theoretically Andy COULD drop more than one amulet, but I have no idea how this works, and she only ever dropped more than one amulet that single time.

Krythic wrote: 3 years ago

Don't do it. Just don't. Save up for a

Vex, or whatever the current market price is and just buy one. Trying to farm this amulet is soul-crushing.

I disagree entirely. Not with any of your math or your calculations, we can look at the same data set and come to completely different conclusions. I think the whole fun in D2 is the loot grind. This is what all the business suits saw in the early 2000's and made them come in and start charging us for. It's all the fun of a loot box with none of the microtransactions. It's what causes people to go broke at slot machines in casinos. Just one more pull of the andrial loot machine. I just wanna sit there and grind the same boss for 12 hours straight and see what drops. It's like an online gambling simulator without any money, lol.

Oh my, lol that is a gorgeous picture and more-so on the topic quick, i realised like i had mentioned on it no one was able to answer that question. Maybe 1 for the creators lol

Beardozer wrote: 3 years ago

Krythic wrote: 3 years ago

Don't do it. Just don't. Save up for a

Vex, or whatever the current market price is and just buy one. Trying to farm this amulet is soul-crushing.

I disagree entirely. Not with any of your math or your calculations, we can look at the same data set and come to completely different conclusions. I think the whole fun in D2 is the loot grind. This is what all the business suits saw in the early 2000's and made them come in and start charging us for. It's all the fun of a loot box with none of the microtransactions. It's what causes people to go broke at slot machines in casinos. Just one more pull of the andrial loot machine. I just wanna sit there and grind the same boss for 12 hours straight and see what drops. It's like an online gambling simulator without any money, lol.

Hey man, you do you. I won't fault you for spending your time how you want. As long as you're having fun, that's all that matters!

Some of us enjoy smashing our heads into our desks for 12 hours at a time!

Krythic wrote: 3 years ago

Don't do it. Just don't. Save up for a

Vex, or whatever the current market price is and just buy one. Trying to farm this amulet is soul-crushing.

Ya i think its a mistake to hunt for ANY specific item in this game. Because even the less-rare items could elude you for months because of dickish RNG gods.

When starting I prefer to stack 250-300MF, glitch my Merc and run Hell Andy, Countess & Meph over and over until one of them drops SOMETHING i can either trade or use. lol.

Great write up! At least something postive came out of all that suffering

BillyMaysed wrote: 3 years ago

Krythic wrote: 3 years ago

Don't do it. Just don't. Save up for a

Vex, or whatever the current market price is and just buy one. Trying to farm this amulet is soul-crushing.

Ya i think its a mistake to hunt for ANY specific item in this game. Because even the less-rare items could elude you for months because of dickish RNG gods.

When starting I prefer to stack 250-300MF, glitch my Merc and run Hell Andy, Countess & Meph over and over until one of them drops SOMETHING i can either sell or use. lol.

In my experience I always find things when I am not hunting specifically for them, and I just check everything all the time now. Its how I have been finding some decent starting gear for all my characters. Murphy is always out to get me when I turn my attention to one thing, I have learnt to just not do that and go with the flow more. Less pain in the end.

ChaosRonin wrote: 3 years ago

In my experience I always find things when I am not hunting specifically for them

lol exactly. I honestly hate farming and never do more than 10-20 runs at a time. But im also never expecting anything or stressing about it. Like I found a bunch of stuff last night in just 10 MF runs. Near-perf

Andariel's Visage,

Snowclash,

Pul, perfect Kira's, IK pieces & Gore Riders. I may only use Andy's

Helm and trade the rest off.

I dropped both amu and armor in akt 5 pindle and nith

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

I dropped both amu and armor in akt 5 pindle and nith

after how many runs since you started D2R though? lol

BillyMaysed wrote: 3 years ago

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

I dropped both amu and armor in akt 5 pindle and nith

after how many runs since you started D2R though? lol

I think I was very lucky. they just dropped 10 mins after each other. Im playing since 3 weeks or so but just started doing nith runs since 2 days XD

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

they just dropped 10 mins after each other

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

just started doing nith runs since 2 days XD

Ah ic ic.

A big eff-you buddy.

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

I dropped both amu and armor in akt 5 pindle and nith

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

BillyMaysed wrote: 3 years ago

EfficientRogue wrote: 3 years ago

I dropped both amu and armor in akt 5 pindle and nith

after how many runs since you started D2R though? lol

I think I was very lucky. they just dropped 10 mins after each other. Im playing since 3 weeks or so but just started doing nith runs since 2 days XD

game loves begginners I dropped

Lo from countess for my Grief at first day of farming

Far from me the idea of ruining someone else's day, but oddly enough, I just found

Tal amulet (first set amu I found on this sorc, which I am just leveling through nightmare cows on p8 (single player). Very first cow run, I am lvl 57 and I was first to be surprised seeing it actually was

Tal's!

Sucks I can't wear it until lvl 67 tho (-.-)' .