Results of 100 Hellfire Torch runs

So a few month ago I was thinking it would be fun to have some data on torch farming. The easiest way to get that was to do a 100

Hellfire Torch runs. It took me two month and it was very expensive as i didn't farm keys but trade it all and sold all the torch i got. I'm still trying to calculate how many

Ist it cost me in total but i can tell you (as expected) it's not lucrative at all. I got a few good ones and got to upgrade some of my existing torch along the way.

Here are the result I got :
Amazon : 19
Assassin : 18
Barbarian : 15
Druid : 16
Necromancer : 13
Paladin : 12
Sorceress : 7
PS : All my runs happend on EU server with a Paladin Smiter lvl 85

2 10/10 and 0 20/20
2 lowest chars are Paladin and Sor
Not sure it is "random"

mockingbirdreal wrote: 4 years ago

2 10/10 and 0 20/20
2 lowest chars are Paladin and Sor
Not sure it is "random"

Hahah, I guess it is, but the OP got really unlucky by the looks of it.

On one hand, I kinda think "Why would they even rig this, what's the point? Surely just bad luck!"

But on the other hand, my personal stats farming torches are very similar to those stats;

Sorc is my lowest, paladin is my 2nd lowest, I did find a 10/10, but no 20/20.

mishabg wrote: 4 years ago

On one hand, I kinda think "Why would they even rig this, what's the point? Surely just bad luck!"

Rigging for the devs is probably as easy as editing a text file with a proprietary extension. I suspect it's being done far more often than we might expect.

What I would like to know is where are all these unid

Annihilus' coming from? Anyone can get one for a single HR.

Average 29,94 is just a very little under the average torch (30) so i guess the runs are just right..

Where all Annis are coming from? Read here: post2280177.html#p2280177

Torch flipping drops in value tremendously as a season goes on.

If you did this project in the first month, your value in torches wouldve been insane. It's basically what I do every ladder reset.

These results don't

Shout "1/7" chance for each character class. This seems similar to the latent charms, and

Gheed's Fortune. I've yet to see one, but I've picked up many (not 100, but probably 20ish) latent charms.

jrlafrance wrote: 5 hours ago

These results don't

Shout "1/7"

In just 100 runs, getting exactly 14 torches per character is equally unlikely than this result. On 1000 runs, you will get closer to a 143 average and after 10,000 runs, RNG will even out almost completely.

mikelessar wrote: 2 hours ago

jrlafrance wrote: 5 hours ago

These results don't

Shout "1/7"

In just 100 runs, getting exactly 14 torches per character is equally unlikely than this result. On 1000 runs, you will get closer to a 143 average and after 10,000 runs, RNG will even out almost completely.

Sounds like a challenge, but not for me. I understand how "odds" work, but even in the trade forum, very few sorc or warlock torches (which lots of people like to play), and LOTS of druid and necromancer (which nowhere near as many play), specifically on ladder. Something doesn't add up...but I'm a skeptic!

jrlafrance wrote: 2 hours ago

...but even in the trade forum, very few sorc or warlock torches (which lots of people like to play), and LOTS of druid and necromancer (which nowhere near as many play), specifically on ladder. Something doesn't add up...but I'm a skeptic!

But you have given the explanation yourself:

1. There are less Sorc torches for sale because the demand is much higher, since the Sorc is much more popular than Dudu and Necro but the amount of torches dropping is the same for all classes.

2. For Lock the mismatch is extreme. Everyone plays him (high demand) but there are no stocks of Lock torches and if you drop one, you sell it within hours or even minutes (low offer). That does not mean that they don't drop or drop less often.

mikelessar wrote: 2 hours ago

jrlafrance wrote: 2 hours ago

...but even in the trade forum, very few sorc or warlock torches (which lots of people like to play), and LOTS of druid and necromancer (which nowhere near as many play), specifically on ladder. Something doesn't add up...but I'm a skeptic!

But you have given the explanation yourself:

1. There are less Sorc torches for sale because the demand is much higher, since the Sorc is much more popular than Dudu and Necro but the amount of torches dropping is the same for all classes.

2. For Lock the mismatch is extreme. Everyone plays him (high demand) but there are no stocks of Lock torches and if you drop one, you sell it within hours or even minutes (low offer). That does not mean that they don't drop or drop less often.

I wasn't only referring to torches for sale, but torches in general. I did a quick price check search for each class to find out how many sold, then searched the trades for active for sale, then totalled them to find how many have been listed so far (S14):

Amazon: 6 / 2 = 8 (0.08%)
Assassin: 3 / 7 = 7 (0.07%)
Barbarian: 11 / 3 = 14 (13.5%)
Druid: 2 / 5 = 7 (0.07%)
Necromancer: 3 / 3 = 6 (0.06%)
Paladin: 9 / 7 = 16 (15.4%)
Sorceress: 12 / 5 = 17 (16.3%)
Warlock: 24 / 5 = 29 (27.8%)

Now I realize this isn't anwhere near perfect statistics, I'm sure not everyone sells every torch they come across, some sales aren't reported, Warlock is the desired class at the moment (high demand), etc, but with a supposed 1/8 (12.5%) chance to get any class torch, these numbers don't reflect anywhere near that. Can anyone dig into the code to determine if the odds are in fact 1/8?

jrlafrance wrote: 1 hour ago

I wasn't only referring to torches for sale, but torches in general. I did a quick price check search for each class to find out how many sold, then searched the trades for active for sale, then totalled them to find how many have been listed so far (S14):

How are you referencing/researching torches "in general"? If you searched here, then torches "in general" must equal torches that are or were for sale. People don't make trade posts to show off their finds. We have the forums for that, but that isn't tracked.

Botters bot with sorc's. Botters also farm torches. Botters keep their sorc torches for their bots.

Sorcs are popular. Players play with more than one sorc. I also farm torches occasionally. I have 5 sorcs, 3 warlocks, 1 necro, and 1 druid. Meaning when I do put torches up for sale, necro and druid ones disproportionately go up for sale compared to sorc and warlock.

Check out this video. The guy did 1000 runs.



Amazon: 144, Assassin: 149, Sorceress: 149, Paladin: 141, Barbarian: 137, Necro: 154, DuDu: 126.

There is still some variance, but you clearly see the numbers aligning. Now imagine 10,000 runs and you can expect the RNG to even out.