Singelplayer online countess holding hard in those keys ;(

Am i just really unlucky or is it normal to only have 1 Key in 50 runs? i thought it was more or less 1 in 15. What is this, i'm going insane, just wanted to run 1 ubers today but not gonna happen!. damn game. Got my first Key after 33 runs and now i am on 50 and still no second Key dropped.. UGh! Most boring game play ever chasing keys in my opinion. Maybe better just chase for items and runes and make trades for those keys instead i guess. it's quite an undertaking trying to do ubers online singelplayer. I see people making Games like "9 free sojs" or "10 free Jah" and i know they just trying to boost the chance for those keys but i really don't wanna do like that and i enjoy the Singleplayer online exerience.. just not this part of it. Is it really a 1 in 15 chance? anyone know the real number?

honestly when i started to grind her, the first 40-50 attempts i didnt got a single Key too, meanwhile 5x summoner dropped 2 keys. after i got my first one from countess, it feels like i get a Key every 8-12 runs

I don't know any of the math behind the game, but this seems to be exactly what you're looking for
https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo2/commen ... ple_p1_p8/

I did recently read someone talking about a 180 run streak without a single D Key, so so far you're doing well :p

imagine doin it without taleportation... suicide for the moral. im in the middle of a Key farming session and it tok me 40 rounds at countess to get 2 keys, im on my 10 round at The Summoner and,have found 2 already. u farm lika a maniac, fight your way through the ubers... and get a 13/10 druid torch... hehe. totaly wroth the time XD, somehow its fun anyways

edit: it tock me 14 rounds to find 3 hate keys. Of we go to Nihlatahak so he can blast me to outer space with his corpse exploison LOL

Perfectly normal.
That's randomness for ya.

Occasionally, you won't get a single one for 100+ runs.

Occasionally, you'll get 5 keys in 2 runs.

And all in all, long term (after a statistically relevant number of runs..not 50 ^^), your number of keys will roughly match the expected drop rate.

But since you're a human being and programmed to focus on remembering the negative, you won't see that average matching up unless you objectively track them. You'll still feel like they hardly drop because you remember the dry spells more than anything else.

Probability formula for cases like this (like rolling dice) is 1 - [ (odds of failing)^(number of tries) ]

So if odds of dropping a Key from Countess in p1 are 1/15, chances of failing are 14/15, so:

1 - (14/15)^n

If n=15 runs, it's only 64% chances of getting a Key. So if you do 15 runs you're not far from 50/50 chances of coming empty handed.
30 runs are looking better with 87% chances of getting a Key. But it's still only probability, it evens out over a big number of tries, and your experience may differ.

Another example I like, Ist rune odds from Countess are 1/287 IIRC. If you do 287 runs hoping to get one, you actually have 1-((286/287)^287) = 0.63, that's only 63% chances of getting an Ist!

I'm lazy so I find the easiest path to getting my keys without dropping runes. Recently I began farming for keys to do a little holiday Ubering. I usually only do about a half dozen or so runs before doing a TZ, Travincal, Chaos, or Worldstone run. Over a couple of weeks I managed to get 9 T Keys, 5 H Keys, and 33 D Keys. To balance things out I began trading 6 D-keys for 4 H keys, and I got two takes which increased my H-Keys by 8 which gives me 13. In that time I managed to acquire 2 T keys. Initially I was thinking of doing 4 Ubers, but now I'm considering doing 5 and maybe even 6. The point is, run the one that you can clear the fastest and then trade your excess for the others and give them a deal. I still have 21 Dkeys so I should be able to balance things out a bit.