gorpyr wrote: 3 years ago
I have a feeling there are some time periods when Key drops are turned off. Seriously. I always farm with 8 player games now doing some fast runs to nihl or other and sometimes for hour or two there is no drop like 30 runs or more, even 50. Then suddenly, Key start dropping. 1 run drops, second even 3 in a row then 5 nothing... starting to drop normally like u feel its 10%.
I bet something is up there. Like server got some time periods or like "dropped count max per 3 hours". After 2 months farming and farming year ago in original d2 i say there are some hidden mechanics, that is not just rng.
Gz on Lo, i dropped Lo from nihl at begining 2 months ago and after 1k kills or more he dropped nothing else. Well, if u count stupid Cham from Skeleton then also that. Thats all when it come for farming. The rng jesus in this game is cruel as f. You can farm hard for a month and get nothing. Just trading left so u can get anything...
By reading your post, I must assume you don't know what RNG means or how item generation works in Diablo. You are not guaranteed any specific item from any of loottables. You have a chance to roll x amount of drops from any monster, there are y amount of possible item types for game to choose from and then there is z chance that this rolled item will be what you want it to be. It is not simply "you get item a every 10 games and item b every 20".
Short Explanation of Drop Process
When you kill a monster or open a chest the game may generate items to reward you. The properties of these items are generated at that moment, even though the item may be unidentified. The game creates dropped items with algorithm of such kind:
At the beginning it finds treasure class (TC), that describes all drops of the monster you killed, a chest you opened, a hidden stash you found, etc. All drop sources have treasure classes.
The game then makes one or several iterations, that are called "Picks", when it selects one choice from several possibilities.
One of the possibilities is "NoDrop", which does what it sounds like. Many monsters have multiple "picks," so even if one of them is NoDrop, the other picks may overrule it. Most normal monsters have only one pick, though.
If nothing is selected from the first TC, the next one down the list will be consulted, then the next, then the next, until an item or NoDrop is selected.
Once an item is selected, the item properties are determined. Since most items have numerous possible types, game's algorithm of quality determination is highly complicated. Items such as keys, runes, and potions are only found in normal quality, but items like rings, short swords, helms, and bucklers have different qualities like magic or unique. Note that Magic Find is checked during this step.
For every selected item an ilvl is calculated.
If the rarity check hits upon an item of unique or set quality, the game creates the list of all valid item types (determined by their ilvl) and randomly selects one to drop. If there is not a unique of that type, a rare item with triple durability will generate. If there is no set item of the selected type, a magical item with double durability will appear.
After the game selects item type and item quality, it generates item affixes if needed. It also generates all other properties of an item, if there are such properties. Items like Runes, mana potions, and identify scrolls doesn't have variable properties, but magic rings, rare kite shields, cracked sashes needs property generation.
A simplified example in action: Mephisto is killed! What does the game do to determine your reward?
calculates the number of items to drop
selects item types
selects item qualities
selects certain unique or set items if needed
selects item properties
ceving wrote: 3 years ago
Since I do not use a merc, I use the Helm now myself. It helps at bit. My damage reduction is now 30%. But my resistance went down from 90% to 75%, poison still 80%. Life leech went up to 26%. But I still die once every 20 runs. The major reasons are:
Too many vipers. 3 are fine, but 9 are a problem.
Too many physical immune. No life leech.
Too many shooting bitches. Not enough hit recovery (zero).
Nihlathak with Might + Amplyfy Damage. Not enough life (~1000).
In cases where two ore three items of the list come together, I am dead.
Which class do you use ?
Dealing with vipers is all about using the tools at your disposal to kill them quickly without running in their poison cloud. Same for Nihlathak, strategy may vary depending on your class.
gorpyr wrote: 3 years ago
I have a feeling there are some time periods when Key drops are turned off. Seriously. I always farm with 8 player games now doing some fast runs to nihl or other and sometimes for hour or two .....
There always must be some guy who will defend rng jesus It do not matter how many chest or what quality it rolls, i just say how i feel about the drop. When nihl drop blue/White crap for 50 runs over all the time and no single Key then you probably just say oh you have bad luck etc. I say there is something more to those mechanics, that not how random generators works to roll 1 of 100 every time.
Cryptography wrote: 3 years ago
By reading your post, I must assume you don't know what RNG means or how item generation works in Diablo. You are not guaranteed any specific item from any of loottables. You have a chance to roll x amount of drops from any monster, there are y amount of possible item types for game to choose from and then there is z chance that this rolled item will be what you want it to be. It is not simply "you get item a every 10 games and item b every 20".
Everybody knows this.
The problem is something else: I did more than 100 runs and got 4 keys. This matches a probability of 1 per 25. People told me that 1/14 is normal. I am far away from that. The law of large numbers says that I must reach 1/14. Hundred may be no large number, but I am still pissed off that I had such a bad start.
If I do not reach 1/14, this can have only two reasons. Either the number 14 is wrong (this was the reason why I stated the thread) or the drop rate is not truly random. And if it is not truly random, this means Blizzard may manipulate people.
If you use a slot machine, the win chance is higly regulated. But the "randomness" in Blizzards servers is not regulated at all. Nobody knows, what happens in their servers.
There is a very high risk of abuse, because Blizzard knows everything about us. They know when we start playing, they know when we end playing. They can easily measure our pain threshold: mine was 60 runs without a Key: after that I quit the game. For Blizzard "quiting the game" is the worst thing, which can happen. And in order to keep us in line, they can feed a KI with our gaming habits in order to tune the "randomness".
I am not saying that Blizzard does it: I am just saying, when I where Blizzard, I would do it, because it is not forbidden, because gambling in computer games is not regulated at all.
Cryptography wrote: 3 years ago
By reading your post, I must assume you don't know what RNG means or how item generation works in Diablo. You are not guaranteed any specific item from any of loottables. You have a chance to roll x amount of drops from any monster, there are y amount of possible item types for game to choose from and then there is z chance that this rolled item will be what you want it to be. It is not simply "you get item a every 10 games and item b every 20".
Everybody knows this.
The problem is something else: I did more than 100 runs and got 4 keys. This matches a probability of 1 per 25. People told me that 1/14 is normal. I am far away from that. The law of large numbers says that I must reach 1/14. Hundred may be no large number, but I am still pissed off that I had such a bad start.
If I do not reach 1/14, this can have only two reasons. Either the number 14 is wrong (this was the reason why I stated the thread) or the drop rate is not truly random. And if it is not truly random, this means Blizzard may manipulate people.
If you use a slot machine, the win chance is higly regulated. But the "randomness" in Blizzards servers is not regulated at all. Nobody knows, what happens in their servers.
There is a very high risk of abuse, because Blizzard knows everything about us. They know when we start playing, they know when we end playing. They can easily measure our pain threshold: mine was 60 runs without a Key: after that I quit the game. For Blizzard "quiting the game" is the worst thing, which can happen. And in order to keep us in line, they can feed a KI with our gaming habits in order to tune the "randomness".
I am not saying that Blizzard does it: I am just saying, when I where Blizzard, I would do it, because it is not forbidden, because gambling in computer games is not regulated at all.
Oh boy, here we go again.
When you have done around 4000 runs, summon me again.
Cryptography wrote: 3 years ago
By reading your post, I must assume you don't know what RNG means or how item generation works in Diablo. You are not guaranteed any specific item from any of loottables. You have a chance to roll x amount of drops from any monster, there are y amount of possible item types for game to choose from and then there is z chance that this rolled item will be what you want it to be. It is not simply "you get item a every 10 games and item b every 20".
Everybody knows this.
The problem is something else: I did more than 100 runs and got 4 keys. This matches a probability of 1 per 25. People told me that 1/14 is normal. I am far away from that. The law of large numbers says that I must reach 1/14. Hundred may be no large number, but I am still pissed off that I had such a bad start.
If I do not reach 1/14, this can have only two reasons. Either the number 14 is wrong (this was the reason why I stated the thread) or the drop rate is not truly random. And if it is not truly random, this means Blizzard may manipulate people.
If you use a slot machine, the win chance is higly regulated. But the "randomness" in Blizzards servers is not regulated at all. Nobody knows, what happens in their servers.
There is a very high risk of abuse, because Blizzard knows everything about us. They know when we start playing, they know when we end playing. They can easily measure our pain threshold: mine was 60 runs without a Key: after that I quit the game. For Blizzard "quiting the game" is the worst thing, which can happen. And in order to keep us in line, they can feed a KI with our gaming habits in order to tune the "randomness".
I am not saying that Blizzard does it: I am just saying, when I where Blizzard, I would do it, because it is not forbidden, because gambling in computer games is not regulated at all.
In every game with rng i played, there was always a thread like that. It seem to be, there was never a game with proper rng and they are always manipulates even before ai was a think. It is the nature of humans to question rng if you success is below the expectation. And the success is almost always below or above the expectation.
Don't get me wrong it is always possible that there are manipulation but is only a speculation of your side. You don't delivered enough evidence to really consider a manipulation here. If you had like 10000 runs i would think differently (but more about that the old number are wrong). To my knowledge, the drop rates come player who datamined d2. It is possible that closed bnet works diffrently. I get the feeling i get more drops then 15 year ago but it is a just a feeling and i have no proof to really believe that.
Cryptography wrote: 3 years ago
By reading your post, I must assume you don't know what RNG means or how item generation works in Diablo. You are not guaranteed any specific item from any of loottables. You have a chance to roll x amount of drops from any monster, there are y amount of possible item types for game to choose from and then there is z chance that this rolled item will be what you want it to be. It is not simply "you get item a every 10 games and item b every 20".
Everybody knows this.
The problem is something else: I did more than 100 runs and got 4 keys. This matches a probability of 1 per 25. People told me that 1/14 is normal. I am far away from that. The law of large numbers says that I must reach 1/14. Hundred may be no large number, but I am still pissed off that I had such a bad start.
If I do not reach 1/14, this can have only two reasons. Either the number 14 is wrong (this was the reason why I stated the thread) or the drop rate is not truly random. And if it is not truly random, this means Blizzard may manipulate people.
If you use a slot machine, the win chance is higly regulated. But the "randomness" in Blizzards servers is not regulated at all. Nobody knows, what happens in their servers.
There is a very high risk of abuse, because Blizzard knows everything about us. They know when we start playing, they know when we end playing. They can easily measure our pain threshold: mine was 60 runs without a Key: after that I quit the game. For Blizzard "quiting the game" is the worst thing, which can happen. And in order to keep us in line, they can feed a KI with our gaming habits in order to tune the "randomness".
I am not saying that Blizzard does it: I am just saying, when I where Blizzard, I would do it, because it is not forbidden, because gambling in computer games is not regulated at all.
In every game with rng i played, there was always a thread like that. It seem to be, there was never a game with proper rng and they are always manipulates even before ai was a think. It is the nature of humans to question rng if you success is below the expectation. And the success is almost always below or above the expectation.
Don't get me wrong it is always possible that there are manipulation but is only a speculation of your side. You don't delivered enough evidence to really consider a manipulation here. If you had like 10000 runs i would think differently (but more about that the old number are wrong). To my knowledge, the drop rates come player who datamined d2. It is possible that closed bnet works diffrently. I get the feeling i get more drops then 15 year ago but it is a just a feeling and i have no proof to really believe that.
There is a conspiracy in everything. And people claiming it bring their 40 or 100 runs as a proof of that. Hilarious.
I did level 99 once, in mostly solo games, never with more than 3 people. Took me close to 10k runs over the course of I don't know how long (died few times too). There used to be times when I wouldn't find any good unique/rune for a week and then there was a time when I found 2 Lo runes in a Chaos, in one game. The chance is so tremendeously low, by conspiracy logic, I should still be running and still be, in human sense, Infinity away from that drop.
Cryptography wrote: 3 years ago
There is a conspiracy in everything. And people claiming it bring their 40 or 100 runs as a proof of that. Hilarious.
I did level 99 once, in mostly solo games, never with more than 3 people. Took me close to 10k runs over the course of I don't know how long (died few times too).
People don't understand what RNG is, simply put.
I am not sure, if you understand it. This is a typical example:
thraxismodarodan wrote: 3 years ago
I'm currently looking at four dozen or so runs against The Countess without a Key of Terror drop... Plenty of regular Keys, for chests, though.
I think she's taunting me.
Keep running her. Last time I had a dry spell from her (100 runs NO Key) she droped me an SOJ and a Lo rune, so keep grinding friend!!!!!!
PROOF:
I don't know why people are complaining. See what I got on my last Nihlathak run... 2 keys + Extras!
The game RNG is designed to reward constant play. You may not get anything for a while (for me was 2 weeks without a high rune) but eventually you will see something (rare item, rune,...). Yesterday, for instance, it took me 3 hours to get 3 Terror Keys, whereas it took me less than an hour (with cooldowns) to get Destruction keys. However, I expect that, in another day, it may be the opposite.
We could try to calculate the significance level of whether or not 100 runs without a Key is plausible, based on the event probability of 1/14
Single event P: 1/14 ~ 0.07142857
Number of tries: 100
Number of sucesses: 1
Probability of that happening: Pn(k) = nCk p^k q^(n-k) = 100C1 * (1/14)^(1) * (1-1/14)^(99) = 0.00465 = 0.465%
Given the size of the player base, it should not be impossible to come by, but really really unlucky
For the probability of 23 runs without keys is about 18.186%, quite plausible to see.
ceving wrote: 3 years ago
I am not sure, if you understand it. This is a typical example:
You do not need to do 10k tries. After 300 tries the approximation matches the probability. I did already 100 tries.
So what is the probability? Is it really 1/14?
This is not how it should be seen, there is no "need" for it to match probability after x runs. There is a probability of that happening, which is what I calculated. Yesterday I got 3 keys from about 45-50 runs. If I add my trials to yours the net probability improves greatly, so yes, given the evidence, we cannot reject the null hypothesis (the probability of a nili Key is 1/14).
Jamezdin wrote: 3 years ago
Trying to explain statistics to a group of people over the internet, is like trying to teach your dog to Howl the tune to It's a Wonderful Life.
Fair enough, but the age of the d2 player base gives me some hope that a good chunk of them can understand decent math.
Cryptography wrote: 3 years ago
There is a conspiracy in everything. And people claiming it bring their 40 or 100 runs as a proof of that. Hilarious.
I did level 99 once, in mostly solo games, never with more than 3 people. Took me close to 10k runs over the course of I don't know how long (died few times too).
People don't understand what RNG is, simply put.
I am not sure, if you understand it. This is a typical example:
You do not need to do 10k tries. After 300 tries the approximation matches the probability. I did already 100 tries.
So what is the probability? Is it really 1/14?
I what world is a possible example a proof of wrong propability? Chances does not work that way.
It is possible to make 1 Million runs without getting any Key of Destruction and the propabilty could still be right. The chance from that happening is just ALMOST zero but not 0 (and also a possible example). You can use the Law of big Numbers as reason for potential suspicion IF you reach the minimum of runs. But your not even half way there to make legit suspicion. Another problem is you use a 6-sided dice as example but do we have here a 6-sided dice? The thing is it is even more complex, Nihlathak can drop up to 5 items and every one can be the Key of Destruction. If i believe the calculator, every drop has 1 to 43 chance to drop a Key of Destruction and that is a much lower chance then 1/6 of a dice. So you need much more runs for such a low chances to make a good aproximation then it would be with 1/6 chance.
If you really want to know if it is right, try to understand how these chances are calculated. A little advice, the number doesn't come from Blizzard but from data miners.
I was farming yesterday, and can confirm that with the patch viper poison is not nearly as bad as it was. It is still a lot of damage, but is now poison damage, and not dealing massive levels of physical damage.
Well, that's the thing. Unless there is a way to calculate it (from game files) you will be left with only one option. Do almost infinitely many runs and see if the relative frequency stabalizes at a certain value.
And for your example of why you should have to do 10000 runs if in this example already after 300 dice rolls the average number matches the expeced: well, because it can go differently as well. Here's some screens from an excel file I always use, when I talk about probability and the law of large numbers with my students (simple coin flip, relative frequency should stabalize at 0.5).
After doing 300 coin flips the probability for heads seems to be 0.4. Does that mean the coin was rigged? As you can see ater 1500 flips no, it wasn't, we were just getting unlucky. And that's exactly what happened with you. 23 or even 100 runs just isn't a big enough sample size by any means. Just because it works once that you get a stable graph after 150 tries, doesn't mean you always do.
Cheers,
PrincipalOShagH
For trades: PrincipalO#2775
For DClone/Ubers: ForrestGrump#2731
PrincipalOShagH wrote: 3 years ago
After doing 300 coin flips the probability for heads seems to be 0.4. Does that mean the coin was rigged? As you can see ater 1500 flips no, it wasn't, we were just getting unlucky. And that's exactly what happened with you. 23 or even 100 runs just isn't a big enough sample size by any means. Just because it works once that you get a stable graph after 150 tries, doesn't mean you always do.
Ok. Now these stupid Nihlathak runs have a sense even if I do not get any keys: they fill my measuring graph. Maybe I will come back here, if I ever reach 1500.
PrincipalOShagH wrote: 3 years ago
After doing 300 coin flips the probability for heads seems to be 0.4. Does that mean the coin was rigged? As you can see ater 1500 flips no, it wasn't, we were just getting unlucky. And that's exactly what happened with you. 23 or even 100 runs just isn't a big enough sample size by any means. Just because it works once that you get a stable graph after 150 tries, doesn't mean you always do.
Ok. Now these stupid Nihlathak runs have a sense even if I do not get any keys: they fill my measuring graph. Maybe I will come back here, if I ever reach 1500.
If you want to make it more precise, also count the drops of Nihlathak so you can calculate it per drop and not per run. Analysing randomness is nothing simple.
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It do not matter how many chest or what quality it rolls, i just say how i feel about the drop. When nihl drop blue/
Hayyed
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Cryptography
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