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I totally with you man, same happened when I created new character, ALL the time before I have finished hell got at least one lucky drop on my way in! I think there is something going on next to the clean RNG but this is only my thoughtkaikossades wrote: 3 years ago So I run for keys daily and noticed a weird thing - sometimes I can literally do ~200 runs one after another with 0 to very few keys. And sometimes I just freshly login and they drop like crazy, double from summoner, one from nih in a single run and then almost every first/second run there is at least one Key, then I take a break and next day again it's either many keys, or nothing for hours. Please don't tell me it's RNG, I know math and this is not how probability theory and normal distribution work. I also don't believe in conspiracy and my main theory behind that is their random generator uses a really predictable source of randomness or there is a bug in how it's coded. What do you think? Does it happen to others?
^ this. randomness is clumpy to a single observer and homogenous with a lot of data visible, but i do believe the way d2 generates random numbers takes into account time in game, and has a tendency to drop a unique early. a long time ago someone from blizz said they have 'pity' system set up in d3 rng that drops a legendary if you haven't had one in a while, but wouldn't elaborate on how it worked. i can say with confidence they don't just use a random float, but a more complex custom algorithm using many variables, with rng.mishabg wrote: 3 years agoThe odds of this happening are around 1 in a million.kaikossades wrote: 3 years agoit's like if now I would flip 10 tails in a row, go eat and after lunch would flip 10 heads. In the end it was 50/50 heads and tails, but the distribution is very improbable.Bounder wrote: 3 years ago I'm skeptical, why not do the math then? What's ~200 really? What's "0 to few" really? My worst streak was like 30 runs and that's still like a sadly solid 7% chance of it happening on p8. If you play enough you'll get that and worse, as well as the really good streaks.
Surely the coin is flawed, and also it was changed for a different flawed coin during the lunch, right?
I mean, 1 out of 1 million, nothing with such low probability should ever happen... Well, other than lottery I guess. Which is won every single day, despite having similarly low odds.
How does it happen? Because many players roll on that 1 out of 1 million odds. And one of them gets it.
Imagine if 10,000 players flips these 20 coins, every day for a month; Suddenly, there's 25% chance that one of them gets that exact sequence you described.
The thing with probability, is that people don't see the big picture.
I've played many games in which people said similar things; Poker being the main one (literally 75% of the players think they're unlucky), but also games like Hearthstone when people say things like "I lost 20 games in a row that shouldn't be possible!"; Sure that's very unlikely if you're the only one playing, but when 1 million players play 10, 20, 30 games every day, someone is bound to lose 20 in a row quite regularly.
So, to come back to the OP's situation:
If streaks like that happen once: Shit happens, when thousands of people do the same thing over and over again. The only "weird" thing is that it happened to you.
If you think it happens all the time: Start recording your stats. People who find "anomalies" in RNG systems never have any track records, only vague estimates.
If you truly believe there's something off with the system, start recording your stats and it should be very easy to prove it.
But odds are, recording your stats will make you see that there's nothing wrong with the system, it's just normal lucky streaks followed by unlucky streaks that happen naturally with RNG.
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^THIS multiplied by 9999999999999999999999999999999. Don't know the coding or how the rng system or any of all-the-above-discussed "works"...But this consistently is how my loot goes every single day for the past 2 months @ about 8-12 hours played daily. Something sick within the first 20-30 min....Nothing for 4-6 hours, sometimes longer (and what I mean by nothing is not even a CHANCE to id or inspect something that MIGHT be good...like a small charm or the CHANCE to inspect a grey Giant Thresher or Thresher on the Ground to see if it's Eth) Then I somewhat superstitiously close the game for about 30 min...Boom, something sick within the first 3 areas cleared after the restart...back to 3-4 hours, or until I pass out of nothing. Rinse and repeat everyday just because the chase for sick drops, however scarce...is still awesome...But I do wish I could know the EXACT way that the rng is coded for drops...Or if there were some secret algorithm that kicked in, and for what reason, and when... If I just could know exactly....it would make the chase even more addicting.anthonyoffire wrote: 3 years agoI swear this is true! I get nothing of value for a couple weeks, then a bunch of stuff within an hour, then nothing for weeks, then 2 HR's in the same run, etc. It's all ups and downs. I've played a ton (10 hours a day for the first couple weeks), and I never found Andy's Visage. Found 3 in the last 2 days playing just a couple hours. In addition, it's always at the start of my play session when I get good loot.MadBarbosa wrote: 3 years ago For me it's pretty clear that there are times where it doesn't matter how much you farm, you don't get anything valuable.
Then suddenly you pop the nth run and you start getting a noticeable better loot, even if you don't get anything useful you can clearly see the difference.
It keeps going this way for a while until you start getting only whites and blues, once again.
It's like if there is some mechanism that flags and unflags your account making it able to access to certain type of loot.
Definitely feels like the underlying rand() implementation is using a linear congruential generator and the drop tables aren't shuffled properlykaikossades wrote: 3 years ago So I run for keys daily and noticed a weird thing - sometimes I can literally do ~200 runs one after another with 0 to very few keys. And sometimes I just freshly login and they drop like crazy, double from summoner, one from nih in a single run and then almost every first/second run there is at least one Key, then I take a break and next day again it's either many keys, or nothing for hours. Please don't tell me it's RNG, I know math and this is not how probability theory and normal distribution work. I also don't believe in conspiracy and my main theory behind that is their random generator uses a really predictable source of randomness or there is a bug in how it's coded. What do you think? Does it happen to others?
0-24 runs got 2 hate keys, then run till 74 to get 1 more Key, so 50 runs - nothing.Bounder wrote: 3 years ago I'm skeptical, why not do the math then? What's ~200 really? What's "0 to few" really? My worst streak was like 30 runs and that's still like a sadly solid 7% chance of it happening on p8. If you play enough you'll get that and worse, as well as the really good streaks.
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