runeword stats equal chance or normal distribution?

Trying to roll a 15 fire dmg Flickering Flame - I now waster 12

Vex runes and so far nothing - but I had a lot of 13 - so I was wondering if the values are normal distribution or equally likely.

They are equally likely. RNGeezus just hates your guts. He hated me so hard one time I had to roll some 47, or maybe it was 57, hotos before seeing a single 40@.

Thanks ~ yea, I feel you. But good to know.

This is a valid question, i don’t know if there’s been any actual research/analysis, or just anecdotal.

Back on the anecdotal side, I’ve rolled botd probably a hundred or so times in various weapons, and it seems to be equal stat distribution, but I’ve also rolled Flickering Flame as you have and it totally does not seem flat and more of a normal distribution.

I hypothesize anything from patch 2.4 or later follows normal dist and everything before is flat.

But again, i have no facts to back it up

Nate2.0 wrote: 2 months ago

I hypothesize anything from patch 2.4 or later follows normal dist and everything before is flat.

and this, my friends, is how urban legends are born
try number 13 was the one - but for real - I had 1x 10, 1x11, 3x12, 5x13m 2x14, 1x15 - I think the sample size is too small for anything though - was just wondering.

I've rolled so many spirits I can't count. Well over 100. I can anecdotally say that I do get a 35FCR about 1 out of every 10 rolls. It looks like a uniform distribution to me.

Fact: The longer you haven't played/created a RW, the higher the next one will roll and the better your drops will be.

And by 'fact' I mean 'fiction/urban legend'..though observer bias does make it seem a rather reliable rule. :p

xigua wrote: 2 months ago

and this, my friends, is how urban legends are born

As for all other RNG based games it's server based. Even if you could get reliable data it would still be server-based or in other words an average across all players. If you are having extremely bad luck with something you could say someone else out there is having equally good one! At least I like to think that way... It's just how randomization works. All in all, someone is always having fun -- that's what matters the most. And don't forget about all the people who are just enjoying "the hunt" more than "the gamble" at the very end. This is one of the reasons why Diablo 2 is still...such...a god damn...fabulous game!

departure wrote: 2 months ago

I've rolled so many spirits I can't count. Well over 100. I can anecdotally say that I do get a 35FCR about 1 out of every 10 rolls. It looks like a uniform distribution to me.

Actually it's 1/11, as there are 11 possible outcomes (25, 26, ..., 35).

TheDoo wrote: 2 months ago

As for all other RNG based games it's server based. Even if you could get reliable data it would still be server-based or in other words an average across all players. If you are having extremely bad luck with something you could say someone else out there is having equally good one! At least I like to think that way... It's just how randomization works. All in all, someone is always having fun -- that's what matters the most. And don't forget about all the people who are just enjoying "the hunt" more than "the gamble" at the very end. This is one of the reasons why Diablo 2 is still...such...a god damn...fabulous game!