Torch Sale Price Calculations

Been playing around with google sheets to map out distribution of sales for

Hellfire Torch

The sample size is small since we want to preserve the class weighting in order to view a correct distribution of outcomes.

I've manually converted all sale prices from data on diablo2.io into price in

Ist so that its plottable.

The net result is an average sale price of around 5.33

Ist or equivalent of

Vex +

Ist +

Um

The current market rate for 3x3 is

Vex this means on average given a large supply of keys you will return 1.33 or

Ist +

Um for

Key sets purchased if you run Ubers.

The downcase though for below average torches is quite severe so given a typical player only has a couple unid torches it would sense to sell them unidentified as insurance against the potential losses. For players who can trade in larger volumes however, it’s clear that there are profits to be made.

I'd love to get a more complete dataset here but unfortunately the low amount of sales of certain class torches makes it a bit hard

Nice idea. As far as the “should I buy one or hunt my own” - Think sale prices on here are high and skewed by relatively better torches selling, people might not even list low torches due to futility, say a 10/10 Druid torch for example.

zZorceressTraderz wrote: 1 year ago

Nice idea. As far as the “should I buy one or hunt my own” - Think sale prices on here are high and skewed by relatively better torches selling, people might not even list low torches due to futility, say a 10/10 Druid torch for example.

True. I would sell a low druid torch to

Charsi or drop it in a public game.
The result shows the price of sold torches. It misses the un-sellable torches.

Yeah i think it might make sense to model the 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% values for each class and then use that to calculate distributions.

Could use recent sales plus common sense to determine those values, given some torches as correctly pointed out are worth 0.

The

Hellfire Torch market is oversupplied imo, lot's of mediocre torches are available that no one wants mid-late in a season.

If you roll a Druid/Baba/Necro/Assa/Ama Torch that is mediocre, you're already at a huge loss in comparison to selling the

3x3 Keyset. What's left is gambling for either Paladin and/or Sorceress torches, which are always in demand no matter what.

It's only worth if you are wealthy enough or dedicated yourself to farm for keysets and get a potential sorc torch, which will always sell for a nice profit.

In the end we all play for the adrenaline rush of great RNG drops so it makes sense why the market is so flooded with these torches and their value decreasing with time.

The great hunt for a 20/20 Sorcererss Torch is just fun for me, so I accept the loss! Even buying unidentified Hellfire Torches can be a fun gamble.