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1

The odds of getting a set of affixes on a crafted and a rare are similar?

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Description

Hi

I did some test on maxroll to see the odds of get some specific affixes on a crafted/rare item.

I expected that the odds would be similar, but the chance to get the affixes i want with a rare ring is 10 times higher , and for the rare gloves the chance is 2 times higher 🤔🤔

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https://maxroll.gg/d2/d2planner/nm5k90ia

(I'm looking more to the "Odds of rolling selected mods", as the "Odds of rolling selected values or higher" count the fixed affixes variations on crafted items...)

- Ring (10 fcr 6 ml 11@ 30 lr)

Crafted:
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/115,842
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/127,426,000

Rare
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/10,952
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/12,047,089

- Gloves (2 java sk 20 ias)

Crafted
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/221.5 (0.45%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/664.4 (0.15%)

Rare
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/133.3 (0.75%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/399.9 (0.25%)

Magic
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/2808 (0.04%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/6318 (0.02%)

- Gloves (2 java sk 20 ias 30 lr)

Crafted
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/1940 (0.05%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/213,397

Rare
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/718.9 (0.14%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/79,083
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7
Hi

I did some test on maxroll to see the odds of get some specific affixes on a crafted/rare item.

I expected that the odds would be similar, but the chance to get the affixes i want with a rare ring is 10 times higher , and for the rare gloves the chance is 2 times higher 🤔🤔

----

https://maxroll.gg/d2/d2planner/nm5k90ia

(I'm looking more to the "Odds of rolling selected mods", as the "Odds of rolling selected values or higher" count the fixed affixes variations on crafted items...)

- Ring (10 fcr 6 ml 11@ 30 lr)

Crafted:
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/115,842
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/127,426,000

Rare
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/10,952
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/12,047,089

- Gloves (2 java sk 20 ias)

Crafted
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/221.5 (0.45%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/664.4 (0.15%)

Rare
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/133.3 (0.75%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/399.9 (0.25%)

Magic
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/2808 (0.04%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/6318 (0.02%)

- Gloves (2 java sk 20 ias 30 lr)

Crafted
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/1940 (0.05%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/213,397

Rare
Odds of rolling selected mods: 1/718.9 (0.14%)
Odds of rolling selected values or higher: 1/79,083

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7
User avatar

Schnorki 3183Moderator

PC
Aye, the odds aren't gonna be comparable most of the time for a couple primary reasons:

1) Different item types have different affixes they can get. As such, the list of possible pre- and/or suffixes you can roll may be significantly longer (or shorter) than on a different item type, meaning the odds of getting the one you want from within that list are equally significantly lower (or higher) as "one of a handful" is a lot easier to hit than "one of many".

2) Certain affixes have set values/non-variant effects, such as 'of ages' simply always being indestructible. Other affixes however, will give you a range of possible results, such as Ambergris offering anywhere from 16-30 light res. So for the first, you merely have to roll the right affix. Easy (well...kind of ^^). For the second however, you need to first get lucky on the affix and then still roll a value that's high enough for your needs within that affix, massively reducing the odds of actually getting the one you want, depending on how high you need that value roll to be.

Obviously, the more specific wants/affixes you combine, the more your odds go down as well. Finding something with 2 mods you want tends to be a lot easier than with 4 mods you want.

Additionally, crafted odds - with everything else being equal - are typically gonna be lower as you only get 4 chances at it (due to only 4 flexible affixes) while a rare can give you up to 6. (Obviously not applicable to the hard-coded craft affixes)
The same applies to magic (with only 2 affixes) though these are additionally lowered by #1 above as magic tends to have more affix options as well.

(Note: It isn't quite 2, 4 and 6 for your specific affix, seeing how you have to differentiate between prefixes and suffixes, each of which come with non-1 roll odds to even be available but the Principle holds)
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