Answer: Not that unlucky really...
So I think I was a very lucky player early on in D2R, got multiple HR drops which combined with trading and running Ubers got my Infinity just before Chrissy. I then got another Sur rune shortly after that but since then been in a dry spell. I wasn't counting but estimate 70-80 Cow/ AS/ Chaos/ Nhil runs with nothing much to show from it.
Then old mate posts about his 500 cow runs and get's about 5-6 Ber worth of value and I'm like sweet - let's just copy that.
240 Solo Cow Runs later (and 140 Solo Chaos) and I have a Gul rune, 2 Mal runes and a couple of smaller runes as well. So I wondered how unlucky I was and what were the chances of turning this around...
Using this a source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo2/commen ... ing_guide/
This source has chance of getting a Sur rune in value from solo cows at 167 Runs. Chance of getting Sur rune in value in Chaos at 1 in 378.
So in my simple maths mind, my odds of getting "nothing" in my runs (just since I started counting) are:
(1-(1/167))^240 x (1-(1/378))^140
= (1-0.5899%)^240 x (1-0.2646%)^140
= 99.40125%^240 x 99.7354%^140
=23.6585% x 69.014%
=16.33%
Pretty much a 1 in 6 chance of this occurring! Which yeah, is on the unlucky side, but by no means that unlikely at all. Has to happen to somebody... Going to see if I can repeat the effort over another 260 cow runs and if I don't get a HR (I'm probably about a Sur in value off an Enigma) by then I might just paypal one haha!
So keen to hear if my maths is right and see what other "unlucky streaks" folks are on?
Good luck All!
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Answer: Not that unlucky really...
So I think I was a very lucky player early on in D2R, got multiple HR drops which combined with trading and running Ubers got my Infinity just before Chrissy. I then got another Sur rune shortly after that but since then been in a dry spell. I wasn't counting but estimate 70-80 Cow/ AS/ Chaos/ Nhil runs with nothing much to show from it.
Then old mate posts about his 500 cow runs and get's about 5-6 Ber worth of value and I'm like sweet - let's just copy that.
240 Solo Cow Runs later (and 140 Solo Chaos) and I have a Gul rune, 2 Mal runes and a couple of smaller runes as well. So I wondered how unlucky I was and what were the chances of turning this around...
Using this a source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo2/commen ... ing_guide/
This source has chance of getting a Sur rune in value from solo cows at 167 Runs. Chance of getting Sur rune in value in Chaos at 1 in 378.
So in my simple maths mind, my odds of getting "nothing" in my runs (just since I started counting) are:
(1-(1/167))^240 x (1-(1/378))^140
= (1-0.5899%)^240 x (1-0.2646%)^140
= 99.40125%^240 x 99.7354%^140
=23.6585% x 69.014%
=16.33%
Pretty much a 1 in 6 chance of this occurring! Which yeah, is on the unlucky side, but by no means that unlikely at all. Has to happen to somebody... Going to see if I can repeat the effort over another 260 cow runs and if I don't get a HR (I'm probably about a Sur in value off an Enigma) by then I might just paypal one haha!
So keen to hear if my maths is right and see what other "unlucky streaks" folks are on?
Good luck All!
So I think I was a very lucky player early on in D2R, got multiple HR drops which combined with trading and running Ubers got my Infinity just before Chrissy. I then got another Sur rune shortly after that but since then been in a dry spell. I wasn't counting but estimate 70-80 Cow/ AS/ Chaos/ Nhil runs with nothing much to show from it.
Then old mate posts about his 500 cow runs and get's about 5-6 Ber worth of value and I'm like sweet - let's just copy that.
240 Solo Cow Runs later (and 140 Solo Chaos) and I have a Gul rune, 2 Mal runes and a couple of smaller runes as well. So I wondered how unlucky I was and what were the chances of turning this around...
Using this a source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo2/commen ... ing_guide/
This source has chance of getting a Sur rune in value from solo cows at 167 Runs. Chance of getting Sur rune in value in Chaos at 1 in 378.
So in my simple maths mind, my odds of getting "nothing" in my runs (just since I started counting) are:
(1-(1/167))^240 x (1-(1/378))^140
= (1-0.5899%)^240 x (1-0.2646%)^140
= 99.40125%^240 x 99.7354%^140
=23.6585% x 69.014%
=16.33%
Pretty much a 1 in 6 chance of this occurring! Which yeah, is on the unlucky side, but by no means that unlikely at all. Has to happen to somebody... Going to see if I can repeat the effort over another 260 cow runs and if I don't get a HR (I'm probably about a Sur in value off an Enigma) by then I might just paypal one haha!
So keen to hear if my maths is right and see what other "unlucky streaks" folks are on?
Good luck All!
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