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32 replies   21641 views
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Description

Description by kaikossades
5

Can be used to make Runewords:

7
got lucky with six keys in an hour plus once, countess showered her love to me that morning

2nd poster MadBarbosa pretty much sums up everyone's experience.

some days if you get dry runs, the game is trying to tell you to take a day off.

shut off bnet, power down your router to try cycle your IP address, and get some sunshine. Try again in few hours.

(sometimes I joke to myself that its an IP ban to get loot :P)
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kaikossades wrote: 2 years ago
So I run for keys daily and noticed a weird thing - sometimes I can literally do ~200 runs one after another with 0 to very few keys. And sometimes I just freshly login and they drop like crazy, double from summoner, one from nih in a single run and then almost every first/second run there is at least one
Key
, then I take a break and next day again it's either many keys, or nothing for hours. Please don't tell me it's RNG, I know math and this is not how probability theory and normal distribution work. I also don't believe in conspiracy and my main theory behind that is their random generator uses a really predictable source of randomness or there is a bug in how it's coded. What do you think? Does it happen to others?
I totally with you man, same happened when I created new character, ALL the time before I have finished hell got at least one lucky drop on my way in! I think there is something going on next to the clean RNG but this is only my thought :)
7
Y'all seem to be able to calculate probability, but not grok it at all.
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mishabg wrote: 2 years ago
kaikossades wrote: 2 years ago
Bounder wrote: 2 years ago
I'm skeptical, why not do the math then? What's ~200 really? What's "0 to few" really? My worst streak was like 30 runs and that's still like a sadly solid 7% chance of it happening on p8. If you play enough you'll get that and worse, as well as the really good streaks.
it's like if now I would flip 10 tails in a row, go eat and after lunch would flip 10 heads. In the end it was 50/50 heads and tails, but the distribution is very improbable.
The odds of this happening are around 1 in a million.

Surely the coin is flawed, and also it was changed for a different flawed coin during the lunch, right?

I mean, 1 out of 1 million, nothing with such low probability should ever happen... Well, other than lottery I guess. Which is won every single day, despite having similarly low odds.

How does it happen? Because many players roll on that 1 out of 1 million odds. And one of them gets it.

Imagine if 10,000 players flips these 20 coins, every day for a month; Suddenly, there's 25% chance that one of them gets that exact sequence you described.

The thing with probability, is that people don't see the big picture.

I've played many games in which people said similar things; Poker being the main one (literally 75% of the players think they're unlucky), but also games like Hearthstone when people say things like "I lost 20 games in a row that shouldn't be possible!"; Sure that's very unlikely if you're the only one playing, but when 1 million players play 10, 20, 30 games every day, someone is bound to lose 20 in a row quite regularly.

So, to come back to the OP's situation:

If streaks like that happen once: Shit happens, when thousands of people do the same thing over and over again. The only "weird" thing is that it happened to you.

If you think it happens all the time: Start recording your stats. People who find "anomalies" in RNG systems never have any track records, only vague estimates.

If you truly believe there's something off with the system, start recording your stats and it should be very easy to prove it.

But odds are, recording your stats will make you see that there's nothing wrong with the system, it's just normal lucky streaks followed by unlucky streaks that happen naturally with RNG.
^ this. randomness is clumpy to a single observer and homogenous with a lot of data visible, but i do believe the way d2 generates random numbers takes into account time in game, and has a tendency to drop a unique early. a long time ago someone from blizz said they have 'pity' system set up in d3 rng that drops a legendary if you haven't had one in a while, but wouldn't elaborate on how it worked. i can say with confidence they don't just use a random float, but a more complex custom algorithm using many variables, with rng.
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 Deleted User 2817 0

 Guest
I got two
Key of Destruction
to drop at once in an 8 player game last week. Blew my mind.
7
Last night i did about 8 -10 arcane runs (solo online), got a
Key
, today 12 hours, and nothing. My nephew came to help and got the
Key
he needed in 5 minutes. Does anyone know how to appease the RNG gods?
7
User avatar

Darbon 138

Paladin Europe PC
You need to consider other items that can drop so your 1:14
Key
needs to compete with hundreds of other items that have 1:1000 chance and so on.

7
anthonyoffire wrote: 2 years ago
MadBarbosa wrote: 2 years ago
For me it's pretty clear that there are times where it doesn't matter how much you farm, you don't get anything valuable.

Then suddenly you pop the nth run and you start getting a noticeable better loot, even if you don't get anything useful you can clearly see the difference.
It keeps going this way for a while until you start getting only whites and blues, once again.

It's like if there is some mechanism that flags and unflags your account making it able to access to certain type of loot.
I swear this is true! I get nothing of value for a couple weeks, then a bunch of stuff within an hour, then nothing for weeks, then 2 HR's in the same run, etc. It's all ups and downs. I've played a ton (10 hours a day for the first couple weeks), and I never found Andy's Visage. Found 3 in the last 2 days playing just a couple hours. In addition, it's always at the start of my play session when I get good loot.
^THIS multiplied by 9999999999999999999999999999999. Don't know the coding or how the rng system or any of all-the-above-discussed "works"...But this consistently is how my loot goes every single day for the past 2 months @ about 8-12 hours played daily. Something sick within the first 20-30 min....Nothing for 4-6 hours, sometimes longer (and what I mean by nothing is not even a CHANCE to id or inspect something that MIGHT be good...like a small charm or the CHANCE to inspect a grey
Giant Thresher
or
Thresher
on the Ground to see if it's
Eth
) Then I somewhat superstitiously close the game for about 30 min...Boom, something sick within the first 3 areas cleared after the restart...back to 3-4 hours, or until I pass out of nothing. Rinse and repeat everyday just because the chase for sick drops, however scarce...is still awesome...But I do wish I could know the EXACT way that the rng is coded for drops...Or if there were some secret algorithm that kicked in, and for what reason, and when... If I just could know exactly....it would make the chase even more addicting.
7
dude... 2 weeks ago I would have told you "RN-Jesus gon RN-Jesus" but I've definitely noticed a significant decrease in
Key
drops recently. I'm not going to be so bold as to say that it's not possible that this is just coincidence based on anecdotal evidence from a few people, but yes I fucking would actually BLIZZARD IS F'IN WITH
Key
DROPRATES TO INFLATE THE ANNI MARKET AND MAKE MY MARRIAGE BAD. jk. sorry
7
100% somethin is up with keys. I've been farming them for the past few weeks with no problem and now I'm trading torches for
Key of Terror
because I'm so sick of running Countess. It feels like the
Key
drop rates fell off a cliff in the past week and a half.

Available for trade after 6pm EST - US
7
Personally after getting the shaft from
The Summoner
and getting maybe 2 hate keys since launch I just farm my buddy Nilathak. He's been very kind and his gcs are nice to reroll.

Xbox GT: Cinomed541 add me if you need someone to play with.
7
kaikossades wrote: 2 years ago
So I run for keys daily and noticed a weird thing - sometimes I can literally do ~200 runs one after another with 0 to very few keys. And sometimes I just freshly login and they drop like crazy, double from summoner, one from nih in a single run and then almost every first/second run there is at least one
Key
, then I take a break and next day again it's either many keys, or nothing for hours. Please don't tell me it's RNG, I know math and this is not how probability theory and normal distribution work. I also don't believe in conspiracy and my main theory behind that is their random generator uses a really predictable source of randomness or there is a bug in how it's coded. What do you think? Does it happen to others?
Definitely feels like the underlying rand() implementation is using a linear congruential generator and the drop tables aren't shuffled properly ;-)

Edit: ...and probably some naive modular arithmetic thrown in for good measure. But I'm too lazy to either test this statistically or reverse engineer the code. But if anybody happens to have the drop calculation code laying about this would be easy to check.
7
Bounder wrote: 2 years ago
I'm skeptical, why not do the math then? What's ~200 really? What's "0 to few" really? My worst streak was like 30 runs and that's still like a sadly solid 7% chance of it happening on p8. If you play enough you'll get that and worse, as well as the really good streaks.
0-24 runs got 2 hate keys, then run till 74 to get 1 more
Key
, so 50 runs - nothing.
9

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